MBS Day Ahead: Important European Events; Retail Sales; and Congrats to the Mortgage Industry

By the time you read this, markets will already have had a chance to begin digesting the important preliminary assessment from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on the European Central Bank's (ECB) old bond buying program, the OMT.  Long story short, if the ECJ has an issue with OMT, then the ECB will have a hard time conducting actual QE--a move they're widely expected to make some time soon.  And as we know, any rapid change in QE prospects is a big potential market mover.

That said, with this simply being the preliminary assessment, and with the final ruling not likely to arrive until mid 2015, we could just as easily see no reaction here.  The point is that it's a potential source of market movement off the beaten path of big-ticket economic data, technical levels, and tradeflow momentum.

The beaten path arrives at 8:30am with Retail Sales in the US.  Before and after that, the other mainstream market movers mentioned above (technicals, tradeflows) will have plenty of opportunity to push snowballs in either direction if for no other reason than trading levels pushing long term boundaries.  In other words, 10yr yields at 19 month lows yesterday, stocks forming an epic death triangle since mid Dec, slippery Oil, European bonds at all-time lows, and whatever other crazy things you might be into, all make for a highly charged trading environment.  Indeed it looks like volatility is returning.

But before 8:30am, we have the just-released MBA mortgage apps data which shows a whopping--but not unexpected--increase in apps last week.  Here's how it looks in various contexts.  Even though the longer term looks are sobering, a major congratulations is in order for the single best week of mortgage apps in well over a year!

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