MBS RECAP: Europe Reinvigorates Risk-Off Rally for Bond Markets

By: Matthew Graham

European stocks tanked today.  The move was underway within minutes of the morning's payrolls data which initially looked like it might give domestic stocks a boost and hurt bond markets.  But domestic markets quickly acquiesced to the much larger move.  For context, the Euronext was down over 2% while the S&P was down roughly 1%. 

Not only that, but the day's momentum obviously coincided with European stocks, and obviously ended when they closed.  Everything after that was simply an inconsequential drift into the domestic close.

MBS did a good enough job of keeping pace with the broader move to get rate sheets back in line with Wednesday's, and that's about it. 

Notable events apart from the decent payrolls print included:

- The French hostage situation which coincided with the flight-to-safety move in European markets

- an updated poll on the Greek election, still showing the Syriza party with enough of a lead to dampen ECB easing prospects later this month

- FHA releasing their mortgagee letter on the MIP drop.  (Full Story...)


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-14 : +0-11
FNMA 3.5
105-05 : +0-10
FNMA 4.0
107-03 : +0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5650 : -0.0440
10 YR
1.9500 : -0.0680
30 YR
2.5320 : -0.0670
Pricing as of 1/9/15 5:15PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:12PM  :  Any Negative Risk That Had Been Growing is Now Gone
2:21PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Far Enough From Highs to Start Paying Attention
10:55AM  :  Quick, Seemingly Inexplicable Rally in Bonds; Here's Why:
8:57AM  :  Bond Markets Slightly Stronger Overnight; Mixed NFP Reaction

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "pinned to the top of the news stream"
Jason Harris  :  "out all day.....any new mortgagee letters yet?"
Timothy Baron  :  "Yeah today's rally has already lost steam. Even for a Friday, it seems like a good day to lock."
Joshua Crater  :  "if you have the ability to float down a lock and your client is qualified for the loan / happy with current pricing, LOCK. Don't be greedy, those who fish for the bottom often miss it."
Matthew Graham  :  "Client wants to see how far the rabbit hole goes but won't be upset if it only ends up being a few feet deep and devoid of a soft, cushiony landing? Float."
Kenneth Crute  :  "cant go wrong either way "
Matt Hodges  :  "yes"
Tim McNerney  :  "lock/float today??"
Matthew Graham  :  "Good timing on this, with some much-needed fleshing-out of the point I made in the last update regarding ECB QE and Greek elections: http://mndne.ws/1BISWuF"