SFR Rental Survey; BofA's Closing Disclosure Plans, NMLS News; Primer on Employment Report
I'm hooked on watching Buying Alaska, but heck it could be Buying Bismarck, ND for all I care; there's just something interesting about looking at different homes. If you couple that with star power, THEN you have something. For instance, in Zillow's Celebrity Real Estate page where you can look at Sarah Jessica Parker's Greenwich Village town home or Patti Hearst's NYC penthouse....all up for sale. And wonder what the definition of a "celebrity" is.
LOs certainly pay attention to rental prices in their market places: stable interest rates and rising rental prices makes for a more compelling sales pitch. And part of that is renting a house versus renting an apartment. Zelman & Associates November Single Family Rental Survey suggested that single-family rental metrics were closing the gap with multi-family due to less single-family new construction. Single-family pricing power increased 6.5 points year over over to 61.3 in November, while multi-family pricing power is up only 0.7 points to 65.9. Over the past three months, Texas, Florida and California have exhibited the strongest pricing power as well as the strongest rental demand. Single-family occupancy in Q4 of 2014 increased 10 BPS from the previous quarter and given the high demand for single-family rentals, blended rent growth of 3.2% in November increased 60 BPS from last year. The vacant rental supply was down 0.8 points year over over at 46.6 in November and new move-in growth is up 40BPS from last year, but flat sequentially, whereas renewal growth improved 20 BPS to 2.8%, up 40 BPS from last year. (If you'd like to learn more about Zelman & Associates, be sure to write to Ivy Zelman.)
And, in general, house values are increasing versus the amount of debt on those houses. According to Zillow, the national negative equity rate declined in Q3 by 16.9%, down almost half from its 31.4% peak in 2012, resulting in more than 7 million previously underwater homeowners out of negative equity. The decline in negative equity will positively impact the housing industry, allowing previously stuck homeowners to engage in the market as they list their homes for sale, increasing inventory for young buyers. The annual change in home values in Q3 of 2014 was 6.5%, a slight decline from 6.7% a year earlier but home prices are expected to grow another 2.5% in 2015. Roughly 1/3 of homeowners do not have a mortgage and 11.9% of all U.S. homeowners are underwater. For those who are underwater, around half are only 20% or less underwater and 1.9% remain deeply underwater. The largest decline in negative equity has been seen in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Sacramento and Riverside. Although negative equity is on the decline, there is still a ways to go. Negative equity remains concentrated in the bottom tier of home values, hindering growth in the U.S. housing market, as demand has been focused on the bottom third of home values. Fortunately, Zillow predicts that the rate of negative equity will drop from 16.9% to 15.2% by the end of Q3 in 2015.
Recently Bank of America finally listened and sent out its closing disclosure plans.
Along those lines, Ben Slayton contributed, "I am sure you are aware that the most important regulatory compliance issue in 2015 will be TILA-RESPA Integration, which becomes effective August 1, 2015. TILA-RESPA will have an effect on every person in the mortgage industry and it is vital for the entire industry to be educated on this new regulation. With that being said, Mortgage Compliance Magazine has dedicated its entire January 2015 issue to TILA-RESPA Integration. Here is a link to the January issue of Mortgage Compliance Magazine for your subscribers to help educate them on TILA-RESPA."
The State Regulatory Registry, LLC (SRR), operator of the NMLS announced that as of November 30th, 2014, 57.2% of licenses managed within the System had been submitted for renewal, and 63.9% of those requests had their licenses approved. This number increased from a year earlier, where 53.9% of licenses were submitted by November 30th. The SRR's initiative to streamline the renewal process and the recent changes made to the NMLS Resource Center resulted in a decrease in call volume to the call center by 20%. The number of MLO's who requested a license renewal in 2014 was 3% higher than last year and the approval rate increased by 10%. Current renewal facts as of November 30th, 2014, include 66% of financial institution have requested renewal, 86% of federal registrants have renewed and 65% of state-licensed MLO's have completed annual continuing education. In the past, 94% of all renewal application that were submitted during November had been approved by December 31st and traditionally, 80% of applications submitted by December 15th have been approved by December 31st, which decreases to 46% after December 15th. As always, the SRR is encouraging businesses and individuals to renew as early as possible, to ensure probability of license renewal and reduce the likelihood of a terminated license.
NMLS has provided a new version of the 2015 Functional Specification for All Approved Courses. Two revisions have been made; a more accurate definition of mobile devices has been listed in Section 1.16 to encompass "small-hand-held electronic devices." NMLS approved online courses can only be utilized on desktop and/or laptops, and cannot be used on devices like tablets or smart phones. Another correction has updated Section 1.5.2.3 and 4.2 as it relates to course scheduling of Online Instructor-Led (OIL) courses. Course providers may offer one hour OIL courses but NMLS will not enforce the new time requirement until April 1, 2015. Click here for more information.
The Appraisal Qualifications Board (AQB) has delayed the new rule that requires AMC's to run background checks on all approved appraisers that are on their panel until January 1st, 2017. Nonetheless, individuals seeking to obtain property appraiser credentials after January 1st, 2015 will be required to complete 30 semester credit hours of college-level education to become a licensed residential appraiser. For those seeking to be a certified residential appraiser or certified general appraiser, starting at the beginning of the year, a bachelor's degree will be required. There is also a new restriction on continuing education course offerings as appraisers may not receive credit for completion of the same continuing education course offering within an appraiser's continuing education cycle. Also, a written, proctored examination will be required for all qualifying education distance course offerings and qualifying experience and education must be completed prior to taking the AQB-approved national exam.
The monthly jobs report used to be a big deal. That is to say, I can remember a time when traders and hedgers, bankers and investors, would hold their breath and forgo coffee until jobs and payroll numbers came out on the first Friday of every month. It was a "key indicator" and the number actually meant something. I suppose, now, some could argue the number has lost its importance, or at least its cachet; much like when people tell me what they shot playing a round of golf, when I hear the economy put on 50k jobs I ask myself, "is that good or bad?" Wells Fargo writes in What If We Just Need Fewer Jobs, "Historical estimates for the trend in job growth have centered around 150,000 new jobs per month. This is close to the average number of jobs created per month from 1960-1999 (145,000). During this period, however, labor force growth was bolstered by two major secular forces: the demographic effect of the baby boomers joining the workforce beginning in the late 1960s and a cultural shift of rising labor force participation among women beginning in the early 1960s. Now these forces have reversed. Over the past 10 years, growth in the population age 16 and over-the working-age population-has slowed to an average of 1.0 percent per year compared to 1.5 percent from 1960-1999. In addition, the labor force participation rate has been trending lower since the early 2000s. The labor force participation rate for women began to level off in the late 1990s and could no longer offset the long-term decline in the participation rate for prime-age men. A few years later, the baby boomers began to turn 65, an age when participation in the labor force-despite inching up in recent years-drops off dramatically."
Wells' estimate is that the economy would need to add an average of only 65,000 jobs per month over the next few years to keep the unemployment rate steady. Anything above that would lead to a lower unemployment rate. Therefore, with monthly job growth expected to remain north of 200,000 next year, expect to see further declines in the unemployment rate in 2015.
How 'bout these rates!? The big question is how much mortgage rates will follow Treasury rates down - investors are not wild about losing money when mortgages they purchased above par pay off early, and thus grow cautious paying premium prices. With the 10-yr note back below 2% this morning many MBS investors are hesitating at buying more. Thomson Reuters reported that hedge funds were swapping down to 30yr 3% securities from 3.5s and 4s. Monday the risk-free 10-yr T-note rallied nearly 1 full point but 30-year agency MBS prices "only" improved about .5.
Today rates have continued to drop. (The only news is December Non-manufacturing ISM and November Factory Orders out later this morning.) But here is something interesting to note for Thursday: the Fed testing or readying the waters on MBS pool sales with an odd lot of $80 million split along two pieces of MBS set for sale this Thursday at 2:30PM EST. The announcement is for the purpose of "testing" and "readiness" and does not represent a "change in monetary policy stance." As noted above, the 10-yr closed Monday at 2.04% ad this morning we're down to 1.96% (we were here in October) and agency MBS prices are better about .250.
Jobs and Announcements
If you're interested in sales management, Franklin American Mortgage, the nation's 5th largest wholesale lender, is seeking a highly motivated, experienced sales management professional to serve as VP, Regional Sales Manager covering the following areas: IA, IL, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD, UT, and WI. Responsibilities include recruiting prospective Account Executive candidates, as well as developing, training, and mentoring new Account Executives to grow loan production from active and prospective accounts. "Please visit our job posting or e-mail Jennifer Rader for more information."
On the Ops side, Rick Carlson (VP of Underwriting and Operations for Planet Home Lending's Retail Retention Division) is looking for experienced Underwriters and Loan Processors (FHA and VA experience is a significant positive factor for both positions) in its Orange County and Pleasanton, California office locations. "Planet Home Lending is a fast-growing national residential mortgage lender and servicer with over $16 billion in servicing. It supports multiple business channels uniquely positioned to provide competitive products and services. The company is an approved originator and servicer for FHA, VA, and USDA as well as a Fannie Mae Servicer, Freddie Mac Seller/Servicer and full Ginnie Mae Issuer." If interested please send an updated resume in confidence to the Recruiting Team at Planet Home Lending, Recruiting@planethomelending.com, or contact Chase Gonzales, Corporate Recruiter.
Under "expansion", Bay Equity Home Loans, a family owned mortgage lender based in San Francisco, CA, "welcomed branches in Aliso Viejo, CA, St. George, UT, and Shreveport, LA to our branch network family. As we near the end of 2014 it is a great time to look at new opportunities. Bay Equity has regional operations centers, sells direct to Fannie, Freddie and is Ginnie approved, offers strong Non Agency products and above all has a great originator centric culture. We are focused on methodical, careful growth and are looking for originators who want to be the best in the business. Our tools have been developed in conjunction with our top producers, creating a number of best practices available to all in our company to help get everyone to the next level." If you are interested in speaking confidentially about Bay Equity please contact Chief Production Officer Casey McGovern.
Lastly, Ellie Mae (unlike Elly May) announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Jonathan Corr as chief executive officer and a member of the board of directors, effective February 1, 2015. Mr. Corr, a 12-year veteran of Ellie Mae, currently serves as president and chief operating officer of the company. Sig Anderman, Ellie Mae's CEO since founding the company in 1997, will continue to serve on its board of directors as executive chairman.