MBS MID-DAY: Heading Out At Best Levels; This Might be a Recap

By: Matthew Graham

In the same vein as December 26th, this Mid-Day report might end up standing as the Recap due to the stability of the day's range and the mere 90 minutes left before the early close.

Bond markets were steady-to-slightly-stronger overnight and market participation remains understandably low.  In fact, it's in the running for the slowest day of the year.  All that means is that any big moves could cause more momentum than they otherwise might.  In that regard, all we'd really care about would be a big, unexpected snowball sell-off, but at this point it looks like December 23rd already took care of that eventuality.

There's not nearly as much potential for a big snowball rally from current levels.  At best, 10yr yields could hope to see 2.15 by the end of the day but they're slightly more likely to hold inside the 2 day range (which has a low of 2.165).  Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s are also right in line with their best recent levels and have similarly been holding a narrow range for the past 2 days.

There were several economic reports today and none of them had any effect on anything.  This was to be expected, and if anyone tells you otherwise, laugh at them and wish them a Happy New Year.  On a brutally serious note, Happy New Year!


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-08 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
104-09 : +0-05
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6720 : -0.0160
10 YR
2.1720 : -0.0200
30 YR
2.7410 : -0.0180
Pricing as of 12/31/14 12:37PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:58AM  :  Excruciatingly Slow; Bond Markets Right Where We Want Them

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. NOV PENDING HOME SALES +4.1 PCT FROM NOV 2013-NAR"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. NOV PENDING HOME SALES INDEX +0.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT) TO 104.8 - NAR"
Jeff Anderson  :  "The 2014 chart is a thing of beauty. Should be framed and hung on your wall, MG."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT INDEX 58.3 IN DECEMBER (CONSENSUS 60.1) VS 60.8 IN NOVEMBER"
Matthew Graham  :  "It ain't over until the Italian guy sings"
John Tassios  :  "Here we are at year end , and a lot of traders are shorting TSY's for 2015 as they did early 2014, thinking bond yields will rise "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FALL TO 2.353 MLN (CONS. 2.375 MLN) DEC 20 WEEK FROM 2.406 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.403 MLN)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 298,000 DEC 27 WEEK (CONSENSUS 290,000) FROM 281,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 280,000)"
Scott Valins  :  "Happy New Year MBS Live. Fun spending the years online with you all!"