MBS Week Ahead: Holiday-Shortened Week and Year-End Trading Potential

The end of the month, quarter, or year brings additional trading considerations and we have all three this week.  Some measure of "year-end" trading will have already taken place, but the question is how much. 

With that in mind, the first significant event this week isn't really a singular event.  Rather it's the general potential for additional trading motivation during the first 3 days.  This won't necessarily bring more buyers than sellers, but anything that increases market participation will help us get a clearer picture of where we stand heading into 2015.  As of now, the jury is out on last week's weakness.  There's every chance it was merely the product of highly illiquid conditions that are common during Christmas week.

Bond markets close early on Wednesday (2pm ET) and are fully closed on Thursday for New Years Day.  Friday the 2nd brings one significant report in the form of ISM Manufacturing.  The extent to which it motivates participation is informative, especially if there's a pronounced move in either direction.  Bottom line, we'll either get another holiday week fizzle or a preview of the first potential trend of the year.