Rent Increase Estimates; Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie Updates
Let's talk about the $26 billion in equity gain in Colorado in 2014 - Rocky Mountain High! What are not gaining are the stock prices of non-bank servicers. At one point yesterday Ocwen was down 26%, Nationstar was down 8%, and Walters was down 7%. I hope employees have diversified 401(k) plans.
Estimates for 2015 are flying. Zillow predicts that growth in rents will outpace home values in 2015 due to skyrocketing rental demand. The combination of young adults renting longer and families continuing to rent after losing their home to foreclosure has increased the rental market. The millennial generation (23-34 years old) will be the largest home buying age group and current millennial renters are more optimistic than other generations that they will be able to eventually afford a home. As rent prices increase, more of these young adults will turn to the purchase market and given their lifestyle preferences, home purchases could lean more towards condominiums or townhouses. Home builders are also beginning to cater to the millennial home buyer, as they are beginning to build more inexpensive homes. This is good news for buyers, as they will have more negotiating power in 2015 and buying will begin to look more attractive to current renters that can afford a down payment on a desired home.
Zelman & Associates Land Development Survey indicates development activity remains strong. The November land development index equaled 62.5, down from 63.3 a month earlier, but is still indicative of an above average development activity. A negative impact on home-building demand due to decreased oil prices has yet to be felt in Texas as development is still robust in the Texas market but may decline over the next year. Finished lot demand is down for the eighth consecutive month but finished lot value is up 13% YoY. Acquisition demand also fell for the eighth consecutive month and raw land demand is also down but remains above the normal level. Development costs are up 6.9% YoY and land appetite ranking are down for builders and investors in November.
Fee increases and private sources of mortgage financing are expected to significantly cut new-loan business by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the next decade, congressional analysts said recently. The share is expected to fall to about 40% by 2024, compared with 60% from 2008 to 2013.
And many believe that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac share prices could drop as the U.S. mortgage giants face lawsuits over the taking of profits. A federal court in September dismissed lawsuits brought by Perry Capital and Fairholme Funds over the government taking profits, and Pershing Square Capital Management sought dismissal of its own lawsuit. Government lawyers have asked the court to reject the Pershing request and instead rule that the previous dismissal includes the third suit.
Fannie Mae is talking technology and asking are you ready for Collateral UnderwriterTM (CUTM)? View the recently posted training Understanding CU's Risk Score, Flags and Messages, the updated FAQs, and other resources on the CU page.
As a reminder, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both announced enhancements to the life-of-loan representations and warranties under the selling representation and warranty framework. The enhancements are detailed on each website and provide more specific guidelines, Freddie Mac bulletin or Fannie Mae announcement.
Ginnie Mae has added "Consolidation of Disclosure Pages on its website, choose the link to view the bulletin. Ginnie Mae also added periodic information in its November 17th notes and news.
Freddie Mac's Servicer Success Scorecard has been reissued to correct certain calculation descriptions in Attachment A. Additionally a preview of your 2015 Scorecard was available in your Servicer Performance Profile Friday, December 5. Simply click on the Servicer Success Scorecard link in your Servicer Performance Profile.
Lenders are posting and announcing information regarding Fannie Mae's scheduled implementation as of December 13, 2014 of DU Version 9.2. Information from FNMA regarding cut-off date for loans originated under DU Version 9.1; has not yet been announced. The new release includes expanded LTV, CLTV, and HCLTV ratios for purchase and limited cash out refinances. To view Fannie's last announcement regarding these changes follow the attached link December 8th Announcement.
Fannie Mae servicing guide updates include changes to loss drafts processing, changes and clarifications to Mortgage Release borrower incentive payments. Updated information can be viewed in SVC 2014-21 Announcement. Additionally, an updated Evaluation Notices Exhibit has also been published.
There is 6 Months to the effective date for certain sections in FHA's Single Family Housing Policy Handbook. As announced on September 30, 2014, FHA's origination through post-closing and endorsement policies in its new Single Family Housing Policy Handbook (SF Handbook) (HUD Handbook 4000.1) become effective for FHA Case Numbers assigned on and after June 15. Information can be accessed in the Origination through Post-Closing/Endorsement for Title II Forward Mortgages (Origination through Endorsement) section from FHA's Single Family Handbook web page. FHA has also revised Form and Model Documents to Align with Eliminating Post-Payment Interest Charges and Changes to the Adjustable Rate Mortgage "Look-Back" Period Rules. The updated form, "Important Notice to Homebuyers (HUD-92900-B)" is posted on the HUD Client Information Policy Systems (HUDCLIPS) web page. Mortgagees may begin using this new form immediately, but must use this new form for all mortgages closed on or after the effective date of the Handling Prepayments: Eliminating Post-Payment Interest Charges rule, which is January 21, 2015.
As a reminder, since I continue to be asked about it, back in October Fannie Mae has made changes to its self-employed income policies and requirements to provide clarity and increase consistency in the application of these policies. Click the link to review this Announcement. Desktop Underwriter Version 9.2 has been implemented. Review the DU Version 9.2 Release Notes for additional information. Additionally, EarlyCheck Version 2.5 was released. View the EarlyCheck Release Notes from October for more information.
Freddie Mac has posted 2015 Loan Limits. The Guide has been updated to reflect the 2015 base conforming loan limits and the high-cost area loan limits announced on November 24, 2014.
Freddie Mae Loan Coverage AdvisorSM launches on January 12, 2015. Visit the Loan Coverage Advisor Web page to learn more about the features and benefits. Freddie is updating Loan Prospector® on January 26, 2015, to support Freddie Mac Home Possible Advantage, as announced in the Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide (Guide) Bulletin 2014-22 on December 8, 2014. This new offering is available for mortgages with Freddie Mac settlement dates on or after March 23, 2015.
Ginnie Mae has added "Monthly Consolidated Disclosure File Layout version 2.0.
FHA's "Lender Insight" newsletter is designed to provide FHA lenders with up-to-date information about what it is seeing in lender approval, recertification, monitoring and compliance, and enforcement. Each issue contains core information to help lenders better understand the trends and policies that affect their business. To view Lender Insight Issue #7, click the link to the Lender Insight page on www.hud.gov/lenders. The newsletter is distributed to lenders and other interested parties via FHA's Single Family Housing Industry Email List. If you would like to receive the newsletter, but are not on the email distribution list, please visit SFH News to sign up.
Freddie Mac announced the expansion of the Freddie Mac MyCity Modification to include Cook County, Illinois in its Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide (Guide) Bulletin 2014-25. Additionally, it is also revising MyCity Modification requirements for the City of Detroit, Michigan as previously announced in Guide Bulletin 2014-11.
It's always disappointing when you draw your Secret Santa card from the hat and you selected someone in Secondary Marketing....what do you get someone who never appears to smile? My suggestion is a handful of skittles and a research paper. The Chicago Fed has just the paper, it writes in, "The labor force participation (LFP) rate-the share of the working-age population that is either employed or jobless and actively looking for employment-has fallen from 66 percent at the beginning of the Great Recession in December 2007 to 62.7 percent in September 2014. To some, this decline suggests the possibility that there may be labor market slack over and above that captured by the unemployment rate." This is hardcore economics at work and particularly interesting to those of us who look at anyone under the age of forty and think "THESE are the kids who are going to take care of us in our old age?"
Looking at the markets, yields on government-backed mortgage securities have narrowed the most in two years, reducing the effect to home buyers of a fall in Treasury yields. Yields on 30-year bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae narrowed Thursday to within 0.92 percentage point of an average on five- and 10-year Treasuries, down from 0.99 percentage point on Tuesday and the lowest since October 2012.
Things were pretty quiet Monday - it almost seems like folks checked out a few weeks ago. Thomson Reuters reported that volume in Tradeweb MBS was limited at just 52% of the 30-day moving average. "Flows, however, were supportive as the bond market held narrowly range bound." By the time the snow settled the 10-year note was marked higher by .125 (2.16% yield) while prices on agency MBS improved a few 32nds.
We were at the same level this morning when we received a deluge of economic data. November Durable Goods (+2.9% expected, was -.7%) and final Q3 GDP (expected +4.3% it was revised to +5.0% - amazing). Later we will have the October FHFA Home Price Index, final December Consumer Sentiment, November Personal Income and Consumption (expected +0.5 for both), and November New Home Sales. In addition to all of that the U.S. Treasury is auctioning off $13 billion in reopened 2-year securities and $35 billion in 5-year notes. In the early going we're at 2.18% and agency MBS prices are worse .125-.250.
Jobs
New American Funding Wholesale is pleased to announce the addition of Ermete Vestri as Vice President of Wholesale Operations. New American Funding Wholesale Division has been experiencing unprecedented growth in 2014 thanks to our loyal brokers as well as our hardworking sales and operations teams. Ermete, who has a wide breadth of experience and expertise in Wholesale operations will be able to add process and system enhancements that will help to improve our broker's experience throughout the entire process from submission through funding. New American Funding Wholesale will be continuing its expansion and growth, adding new AE's in at least 20 more of our licensed states as well as opening a new operations center in the Eastern time zone (currently slated for MI) and Ermete will be integral in helping New American Funding Wholesale continue on its current growth trajectory.
Greg Frost is looking for a few more Branch Partners. "Yes, it's the same Greg Frost who was the mortgage industry's first billion dollar Loan Originator and current popular motivational sales trainer. Greg's organization currently has Branch Partners in New Mexico, Arizona, California, Colorado, Texas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Mississippi. If you're operating in one of these states, and would like to investigate his very profitable 'Net Revenue Sharing' business model, just click here to schedule a confidential conversation with Greg. Imagine working with and being mentored by one of the industry's' most prolific mortgage professionals. Click Here now."
Speaking of expansion, Bay Equity Home Loans is a family owned mortgage lender based in San Francisco, CA and is welcoming Aliso Viejo, CA, St. George, UT, and Shreveport, LA to its branch network family. "As we near the end of 2014 it is a great time to look at new opportunities. Bay Equity has regional operations centers, sells direct to Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie, and offers strong non-agency products and above all has a great originator centric culture. We are focused on methodical, careful growth and are looking for originators who want to be the best in the business. Our tools have been developed in conjunction with our top producers, creating a number of best practices available to all in our company to help get everyone to the next level." If you are interested in speaking confidentially about our growing company please contact Chief Production Officer Casey McGovern.
And how time flies...I was speaking to John Hedlund of AmeriHome Mortgage Correspondent recently and he reminded me this fast growing, full service correspondent has been in business for just 8 months but will end the year with well over 100 active clients, $500 million+ in December locks, a full slate of agency and proprietary non-agency products and an outstanding reputation for outstanding client service and a speedy loan purchase process...who said it was a slow year! Now even more interesting, John notes that 2015 will be the year of growth for AmeriHome! Management continues to roll out new market driven products and are adding additional high caliber sales professionals to meet increasing demand...most recently, Steve Lilley joined the team as the Sales Executive South East Region...you can reach Steve at steve.lilley@amerihomemortgage. com.