MBS Week Ahead: Some Potential Market Movement, but Low Risk of Significance

The last two weeks of December are not a time where most market participants are thinking about trading opportunistically.  Rather, there tends to be a 'housekeeping' vibe, where traders are simply doing whatever it is they need to do before the end of the year, and--more importantly--before there aren't enough counterparties around to trade with.

Dwindling participation will be a fact of life right from the outset this week.  Morning data and afternoon Treasury auctions will keep some bond market folks around for the first three days of the week, but again, if they're not skeleton crews, they'll be trading like it.

Consequently, there's nothing much to be done from a mortgage market origination standpoint other than to react as needed, assuming you're still here.  Of the events capable of eliciting a reaction, the combination of 3 economic reports on Tuesday morning at 8:30am is probably the most potent.  Activity will die down rapidly after that.

Some of the better technical levels to watch  (based on last Friday's close) include:

Fannie 3.0 Support

101-00
100-21

Fannie 3.0 Resistance

101-10
101-16

10yr Yields Support

2.23
2.2

10yr Yields Resistance

2.11
2.07