MBS UPDATE: FOMC MINUTES OUT
Seeing some profit taking but we dont believe the selling has anything to do with the FOMC minutes...
Fn 4.0-> +0-26+ to 100-30
Fn 4.5-> +0-26+ to 102-10
Fn 5.0-> +0-18 to 103-01+
Fn 5.5-> +0-19 to 103-12+
Fn 6.0-> +0-12 to 103-24
We have reports of investors actually REPRICING FOR THE WORSE!!!! Maybe lenders know something we dont know...like they are about to hedge their positions by selling MBS. No obvious reason in trading for these reprices for the worse though....
Here is the link to the FOMC MINUTES
We like to take these long drawn out documents and pluck some of the important details from them to make your life a bit easier...all excerpts taken from the FOMC Minutes. (Yes this is really is a shortened version)
"The information reviewed at the December meeting pointed to a significant contraction in economic activity in the fourth quarter. Conditions in the labor market deteriorated considerably in recent months as most major industry groups shed jobs. The housing market weakened again as construction activity, new home sales, and home prices declined further. Financial markets saw a further pullback in risk-taking, spurred in part by the more pessimistic outlook for economic activity; this situation led to lower equity prices, higher risk spreads, and tighter constraints in credit markets, all of which intensified the decline in real activity.
As financial market conditions worsened over the intermeeting period, investors seemed to become more concerned about the likelihood of a deep and prolonged recession. In addition, the Treasury Department's announcement that funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program would not be used to purchase securities backed by mortgage-related and other assets appeared to prompt negative price reactions in several financial markets. Stock prices of financial corporations fell considerably, while broad equity indexes declined, on net, amid high volatility. Yields on investment-grade bonds moved lower, but risk spreads on these instruments over comparable-maturity Treasury securities widened substantially as yields on Treasury securities fell more. The functioning of Treasury markets remained impaired, and premiums for the on-the-run ten-year nominal Treasury security rose from levels that were already elevated.
In the forecast prepared for the meeting, the staff revised down sharply its outlook for economic activity in 2009 but continued to project a moderate recovery in 2010.
Meeting participants also discussed how best to employ the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to promote monetary policy goals. The Federal Reserve had already adopted a series of programs that were providing liquidity support to a range of institutions and markets, and participants generally agreed that a continued focus on the quantity and the composition of Federal Reserve assets would be necessary and desirable. Specifically, participants discussed the merits of purchasing large quantities of longer-term securities such as agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury securities. The available evidence indicated that such purchases would reduce yields on those instruments, and lower yields on those securities would tend to reduce borrowing costs for a range of private borrowers, although participants were uncertain as to the likely size of such effects. Participants also generally believed that the special liquidity and lending facilities implemented or announced recently would support the availability of credit to businesses and households and thus help sustain economic activity. Many participants thought that the Federal Reserve should continue to consider whether expanding some of the existing facilities and creating new facilities could be helpful. Participants emphasized that the ultimate objective of special lending facilities and asset purchases was to support overall market functioning, financial intermediation, and economic growth.
Participants acknowledged that the effective federal funds rate probably would need to remain very low for some time. However, they also recognized that, as economic activity recovered and financial conditions normalized, the use of certain policy tools would need to be scaled back, the size of the balance sheet and level of excess reserves would need to be reduced, and the Committee's policy framework would return to focus on the level of the federal funds rate.
In light of the use of additional tools for implementing monetary policy, the Committee revised the form of the directive to the Open Market Desk of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In addition to specifying that it now seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, the Committee instructed the Desk to purchase up to $100 billion in housing-related GSE debt and up to $500 billion in agency-guaranteed MBS by the end of the second quarter of 2009. Members agreed that they should not specify the precise timing of these purchases, but that they should leave discretion to the Desk to intervene depending on market and broader economic conditions. "