MBS RECAP: Strangely Volatile Session Leaves Bond Markets Unchanged

By: Matthew Graham

With 10yr yields less than half a bp lower and Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s a mere 1 tick lower, we're effectively unchanged to end the day.  That's a victory after the volatility and weakness earlier in the session, but again, the rally was hungry for a constant supply of external motivation.

That motivation came from several places today.  Chief among them were the afternoon's strong 30yr bond auction and big stock sell-off (which, itself, is ostensibly tied to an overly-aggressive slide in oil prices).  Don't ask me to make sense of this.  Just this morning, lower gas prices were widely credited for the strong Retail Sales numbers, and of course the balance of talking heads characterize it as an economic boon. 

OK, I guess I'll try to explain it anyway.  Or at least, I'll offer the most mainstream explanation which is that any strength from increased spending power associated with lower gas prices is being offset by weakness among energy companies and the price of protecting against the global market volatility created by such a rapid movement.  I actually agree with this.  It's never good when something as integral as oil moves so far, so fast.  It's just that markets haven't come to an agreement on exactly why that is yet, apart from conjecture and the "mainstream" talking points mentioned here.

Bottom line though, if it hurt stocks today, it seemed to help us, though I'd caution that there's far from a direct relationship between oil prices and bond yields.   The line under the bottom line is this: it continues to take a lot of fuel to sustain our rally (no pun intended, seriously).  That leaves us to wonder where bonds will go when other global markets have a decent day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-28 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
104-02 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
106-17 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6080 : +0.0360
10 YR
2.1690 : -0.0040
30 YR
2.8110 : -0.0270
Pricing as of 12/11/14 5:17PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:09PM  :  Fighting to Hold Ground After Auction; Doing Better Now
12:57PM  :  30yr Auction Preview
11:04AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Near Weaker Levels; Some Reprice Caution Warranted
9:02AM  :  Overnight Gains Dial Back Following Stronger Data, But not Because of it

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "I have a few of them at the moment, all FNMA"
Scott Valins  :  "non-HARP"
Matt Hodges  :  "open access"
Scott Valins  :  "does Freddie give appraisal waivers on some files like Fannie does?"
Sung Kim  :  "oil sub 60, trumps strong sales, stock lever coming back"
Jason Anker  :  "santander will do them but fnma is taking more of thoe now "
Jason Anker  :  "very recent FNMA clarification on that topic Bryce"
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "anyone doing non-warrantable (litigation) condos on a 30 year fixed?"