MBS MID-DAY: Weaker Data Offering Some Solace; Bonds Trying to Level-Off

By: Matthew Graham

Today's economic data hasn't had much of an effect on bond markets, but with the morning activity now in the rearview, the effects look slightly more positive than negative. 

There really wasn't any discernible reaction to the 8:30am Productivity and Costs data, despite it being the biggest miss of the day.  Rather, it was the 8:15am ADP Employment Report and the 10am ISM Services index that garnered a response.

The ADP data was unequivocally positive for bonds, but the major caveat here is that the positivity was unequivocally tiny--too tiny to make a meaningful dent in yesterday's weakness.  Not only that, but it was quickly erased by corporate bond announcements, which carry a negative connotation for Treasuries.

By 10am, the corporate bond issuance was just about wrapping up for the day and ISM data came out with a stronger-than-expected headline.  That made for an initially weaker move in bond markets, but the "employment" component of the ISM data was weaker than expected.  With NFP coming up on Friday, this tends to get as much--if not more--attention as the rest of report.  As such, we were treated to a modest bounce back toward unchanged levels--similar in size to the modest bounce that followed ADP.

The net effects are Fannie 3.5s and 10yr Treasuries at effectively unchanged levels.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-17 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-26 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
106-18 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5550 : +0.0160
10 YR
2.2920 : -0.0020
30 YR
2.9980 : -0.0150
Pricing as of 12/3/14 12:33PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:14AM  :  Bonds Dealt Another Blow by Stronger ISM
9:32AM  :  Bond Markets Struggling to Hold Unchanged Levels Despite Weaker ADP

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM REPORT ON U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS PMI 59.3 IN NOV (CONSENSUS 57.5) VS 57.1 IN OCT"
Paul Martin  :  "Compensation per hour increased at a 1.3 percent rate in the third quarter rather the 2.3 percent pace reported last month. "
Matthew Graham  :  "There's always the Productivity/Costs data "
John Tassios  :  "OK, just wanted to see if 2nd opinion other than BLS data on wages"
Victor Burek  :  "doesnt say or show anything regarding wages"
Victor Burek  :  "here is their release, http://mndne.ws/1rTbrLp"
John Tassios  :  "MG, does ADP report any kind of wage data with their report?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US ADP OCTOBER PAYROLL CHANGE REVISED TO +233,000 FROM +230,000"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- REUTERS CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR ADP PAYROLL CHANGE FOR NOV WAS FOR INCREASE OF 221,000 JOBS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS U.S. EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 208,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN NOVEMBER"