MBS Day Ahead: A Nearly Overwhelming Amount of Potential Market Movers

Today is sorta nuts.  If we listed out line items for all the European economic data, domestic economic data, Fed speakers, corporate bond issuance events, Treasury auction news, and scheduled Fed buying operations, the resulting mess of text and numbers would just be annoying and confusing. 

Suffice it to say that there are a lot of moderately important factoids crossing the wires all throughout the day.  Many of those will already be out by the time you read this, including the overnight economic data from Europe.  In the current environment, this always has the potential to set the tone for the domestic morning.

But domestic events will do their best to argue for their own market movement as well.  Right out of the gate, the 8:30am Jobless Claims data is the more relevant variety as it covers the same time period as the NFP survey.  At the same time, CPI is also potentially elevated in terms of importance due the drastic increase in attention being paid to inflation at the moment (It was yesterday's opening thought).

10am is anchored by two important reports in the form of Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed, with the latter being the bigger deal in general.  From there, the 1pm TIPS auction feels like it might be a bit of a market mover (whereas it usually isn't) again, due to the role TIPS seems to be playing in current Fed rhetoric (discussed in greater detail in the above link).

Lurking somewhere in the background is one of the day's most important events in the form of corporate bond-related tradeflows.  Investors clearly made room for yesterday's announced Alibaba deal (said to be at least $8bln), by selling Treasuries after the post-FOMC rally.  Pricing for the deal should be announced today, and that's the point at which the hedges put in place yesterday (effectively "Treasury selling pressure") can be and must be unwound ("Treasury buying demand").