MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Grind to a Halt Ahead of ECB

Tomorrow morning brings the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference with ECB Pres. Mario Draghi.  While nothing new is expected on the policy front, markets are intensely interested in gleaning any clues about future policy potential.  That interest was reinforced yesterday when a Reuters exclusive cited ECB sources who essentially said Draghi was an overly-aggressive loose cannon when it comes to suggesting the ECB can or will take action that hasn't been agreed to.

If that's NOT where the hearts and minds of bond market participants are today (NFP Friday probably isn't hurting either), you wouldn't know it based on trading. Today was the calmest of the week, and very close to being the most lightly-traded day in months.  The movement put an exclamation point on the lack of volume in that both Treasuries and MBS are heading out the door at nearly unchanged levels.

We did get data this morning, but markets didn't do much with it.  This was especially true of ADP Employment, which was stronger than expected, but nearly undetectable in terms of the reaction seen on charts.  More of a case could be made for the 10am ISM Non-Manufacturing data having an effect on trading levels, but less than 1bp of movement in 10yr yields actually coincided with the report itself.  The rest of the post-10am volatility was not only attributable to other events, but more importantly, was completely washed out by 11:15am, leaving bonds to drift sideways to slightly stronger for the rest of the day.