MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Nervous Ahead of Tomorrow's FOMC

Despite one solid attempt to bounce back to unchanged levels this morning, bond markets spent the day in weaker territory.  For most of the day this wasn't too offensive as the weakness was fairly well-contained.   As the close approached, an ascending trend in yields became apparent.  Treasuries and MBS both ultimately closed at the weakest levels of the day.  10yr yields incidentally matched their intraday high from last Thursday.

But therein lies a mitigating factor.  Yields ONLY made it back to recent highs.  They notably did  not embark on any new adventure into weaker territory in the 3 and a half days since first hitting 2.30.  Not only that, but as of the official 3pm close, they were only up to 2.287.  When we add in the fact that stocks were moving higher at a fairly quick pace today, that amounts to a strong defensive showing for bond markets. 

Long story short, bonds are where they want to be heading into tomorrow's FOMC.  Being on the highest end of the recent range certainly connotes some anxiety about a potential move higher, but anything is possible on FOMC days.  This one, in particular, will be especially open to short and long term interpretation.