MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Coast Out Uneventfully After Morning Volatility

Earlier today, competing short term trends and considerations made for several salient swings between gains and losses.  While MBS and Treasuries never dipped meaningfully into negative territory on the day, they quickly gave up some fairly strong gains on at least 2 separate occasions.  On top of that, the overnight session began with a swift move right out of the gate.  Taken together, there was simply a good amount of movement and "lead changes."

Around noon (just after the second bounce off the day's weakest levels), I put an overlay on the Treasury chart showing a potential consolidation into the close.  The trendlines ran through 2.28 on the high end and 2.26 on the low end, which is "the gap" that we've been paying so much attention to this week. 

This is how things happen sometimes.  Crossing over a significant technical level might end up acting as a major cue for movement, or it can simply be the first step in an orbital consolidation (think of a tether ball getting closer and closer to the pole).  Rather than act as a gateway to the next big move, "the gap" at 2.26-2.28 has been a tether-ball pole for yields. 

This is actually fairly forgivable considering the much more significant fundamental events hitting the tape next week.  These start as early as Sunday with the official results of the European bank stress tests that moved markets a bit this morning.