MBS RECAP: Let's Not Overcomplicate Today's Massive Movement. It's About Stocks (mostly)

Today was intense.  We'll probably be talking about it for years to come.  While there have been bigger days of outright movement in bond markets, you'd be hard-pressed to find a recent example of a day with more explosive movement during what had so recently been one of the most boring, contained ranges in history.

In that regard, we're not just talking about today, but the entire week really.  Treasury yields experienced a notable gap lower with the week's first trade (I even noted it).  Ironically, my thesis on that gap was "This is an uncommon move, and one that most market participants view as significant."  That might qualify as the understatement of the year after today.

But what was the driving force behind the gap and today's subsequent chasm?  It's one thing to talk about "global growth concerns."  That's a pretty good catchphrase that encapsulates a lot of what's going on right now.  But we've had plenty of reasons to be concerned about global growth over the years where bonds have done nothing at all like they did today.

The x-factor is the movement in equities markets.  Looking back to Tuesday morning's gap in bond markets, a big drop in equities futures was the only thing sticking out like a sore thumb.  I can't say it any better than I did HERE.  Here are a few relevant excerpts:

Now something "different" is happening. 

Bond markets don't want to miss out on a good old-fashioned stock market rout.  They want to be there if stocks actually make the big corrective turn that everyone has been talking about for months as stocks continued to soar.  But now it looks like bonds might actually get their chance.

One could argue that such a sell-off hasn't been seen in over 3 years.  Point being: it's big enough that bond markets can't ignore it and are certainly benefiting from the tradeflows rushing out of equities and looking for safer havens. 

Bonds indeed got their chance to "be there" today.  The rush of volume at the stock market open was absolutely ridiculous.  There are a lot of different ways we can talk about the movement that took place.  They're all valid, but none were as obvious or as "different" as the concomitant move in stocks.  Bottom line, bonds made sure they were there for it. 

From here, there are several interesting considerations.  These include the possibility that stocks are simply doing a good job acting as a proxy for those "global growth concerns" among other things (European bond market woes, currency drama, Ebola, Fed expectations shifting back toward later rate hikes, fear that there's really nothing the Fed can do now or has ever been able to do to stoke legitimate labor market healing combined with the fact that rates are at zero and QE is tapped out leaving global markets essentially at 50k feet with no parachute).

But I digress!  Let's see how things go tomorrow and reapproach!  Here's a sneak peak at a chart for tomorrow that shows bond markets' previous preparations to to "be there" for bigger stock swoons: