MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Strong All Morning and Marching to Their Own Beat

While trading activity is nowhere near that seen on Wednesday through Friday last week, it's picked up a bit today.  That's largely been a net positive for bond markets.  In fact, Treasuries handily outperformed Europe in the overnight session, which is not common in general, let alone on the first day of a 3-day Treasury auction cycle.   Traders may be gearing up for what they expect to be a bond-friendly FOMC Minutes release tomorrow afternoon.

There hasn't been much by way of "cause and effect" motivation for bonds so far.  The IMF revised global growth forecasts lower just before the morning's best gains.  That said, it's not clear that the news was the reason for the gains.  It's slightly easier to make a case for an effect on stocks, but both stocks and bond yields were already in the process of moving lower.  During the bounces for stocks, bonds haven't followed with a proportionate amount of weakness.

MBS are underperforming Treasuries a bit, but are also well into their best levels in over a month.  Positive reprices are a distinct possibility in the afternoon.