MBS RECAP: Fairly Calm Consolidation in Bonds, Still More About Yesterday Than Today

Bond markets had a fairly tame day given the potential for the ECB to move markets along with the potential to react to yesterday's big move.  In general, Treasuries began moving in a very linear path back from yesterday's low yields, with only a brief exception in order to trace today's big move in equities.  MBS traced an even tamer version of the Treasury move.

The ECB arguably disappointed again as Draghi bordered on passionately defending the aggression of last month's actions while offering nothing new this month.  Markets are back in the same position of being asked to believe that the ECB would do more than it's already done if the situation warrants.  Both hope and doubt are evident in that regard.

Today's equities market movements were perhaps an even bigger story.  I might have made some attempt to relate these to the ECB news, but Draghi was off the podium by the time things started getting hairy for stocks.  Bonds seem intent on not missing out on "the big one" when it comes to a potential stock correction, but are equally intent on not overshooting it if stocks bounce.  Today was a good example.

NFP tomorrow morning is as likely as ever to set the tone early in the day, but less likely than normal to set the tone for the entire month (as it has been wont to do before, say, April 2014).  In other words, it's always likely to have an impact, but don't be surprised to see a paradoxical move as the day progresses.