MBS RECAP: Resounding Rally for Bonds to Begin October

By: Matthew Graham •

There's little else today's recap can offer that hasn't already been covered in the mid-day commentary.  Check that out here: Strong Bond Market Rally Has Nothing to do with Data.

From there, the trend simply continued into the afternoon as lower yields forced those who'd been betting against bonds to cover those bets by becoming buyers (short-covering).  The snowball rally made for a whopping 10bp drop in 10yr yields today, taking them all the way to 2.389. Fannie 3.5s gained 18 ticks to end at 102-28.

The question at this point isn't whether or not the tradeflow hand-off from September to October will be positive enough to prolong the downtrend in rates, but whether it's already reaching technical resistance levels. 

That question will likely get a good bit of information with the calendar events of the next two days, starting with the European Central Bank tomorrow morning, and then with NFP on Friday. 

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-11 : +0-21
FNMA 3.5
102-28 : +0-18
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : +0-14
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5200 : -0.0550
10 YR
2.3890 : -0.1060
30 YR
3.0970 : -0.1054
Pricing as of 10/1/14 5:41PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:45AM  :  Bond Markets in Rally Mode After ADP, But Not Necessarily Because of it
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Victor Burek  :  "TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added some 206,000 jobs in September. This is slightly lower than the ADP reading and down a bit more from the 231,000 that TrimTabs projected in August, which was of course much higher than the initial Bureau of Labor Statistics report."
Matt Hodges  :  "ladies and gents. Today is the first day of Cancer Awareness month. This is important to me as my sister, mom and my wife are all survivors. Think about yourself or the women in your lives and encourage self exams, clinical *** exams for younger woman, mammograms for 40+, MRI for higher risk, etc. I appreciate MG allowing me to go Off Topic up here. Be well."
Ira Selwin  :  "But yes, for Homepath properties only"
Ira Selwin  :  "Dean - certain lenders may have negotiated terms with Fannie, as they did say they were allowing "expanded" guidelines."
Dean Damron  :  "That makes sense Jeff. I found it on a Quicken Loans news letter, talking about Homepath ending, It's not clear. I always look for confirmation from the source like Fannie Mae. Here's the link to Quicken http://mndne.ws/1wYnKUh"
Jeff Anderson  :  "I believe that's just for the Fannie Mae owned properties, Dean. Ones that were Homepath eligible. "
Dean Damron  :  "It's a question from earlier. I'm trying to find some more info. Fannie Mae is ending Homepath on 10-6, but I read they are going to allow 6% seller concessions on LTVs >90% soon. "