MBS MID-DAY: Under Moderate Pressure Ahead of 5yr Auction; Stock Lever in Play

By: Matthew Graham

Overnight Treasury trading was nothing to write home about.  10yr yields began the day very close to 'unchanged' after initial weakness during Asian hours.  European hours were friendlier, with help from slightly weaker data in Germany, accommodative talk from ECB President Draghi, and concerns over Greece's potential early exit from it's stimulus package.

This morning's musings on the stock/bond correlation turn out to have been timely as the stock lever is very much in play so far today.  S&Ps weakened into 10:30am and moved quickly more than 10 points higher from there.  As stock prices bottomed, so too did Treasury yields.  Both then proceeded to the highs of the day in relative lock-step and both have leveled off since then.

This afternoon's 5yr Note Auction also seems to be adding to the general weakness in bond markets.  5's have been leading the charge today, and apart from 2's, are the only maturity that's back at yesterday's highs (2's have an excuse as they were auctioned yesterday, which tends to result in higher yields the following day for reasons that are similar to MBS ending up with lower prices after 'the roll').


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
98-13 : -0-02
FNMA 3.5
102-02 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
105-09 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5830 : +0.0030
10 YR
2.5420 : +0.0090
30 YR
3.2530 : +0.0020
Pricing as of 9/24/14 12:50PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:40AM  :  Bond Markets at Weakest Levels; 5yr Leads
9:14AM  :  Bond Holding Near Yesterday's Best Levels After Strong European Session

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Here's the breakout, and the longer-term context View Image"
Victor Burek  :  "something isn't right with this report"
Victor Burek  :  "up 50% in the west?"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "uh...wow"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US AUG NEW HOME SUPPLY 4.8 MONTHS' WORTH AT CURRENT PACE, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2013 VS JULY 5.6 MONTHS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US AUG HOME SALES NORTHEAST +29.2 PCT, MIDWEST UNCH, SOUTH +7.8 PCT, WEST +50.0 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US AUG SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES +18.0 PCT, LARGEST RISE SINCE JAN 1992 VS JULY +1.9 PCT (PREV -2.4 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US AUG SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 504,000 UNIT ANN. RATE, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2008 (CONS. 430,000) VS JULY 427,000 UNIT RATE (PREV 412,000)"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "Mortgage-dependent home buyers aren't moving http://mndne.ws/1DxeFq4"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "From CNBC : "Thankfully, that trend has since reversed and we began this week with slow, steady improvement. Compared to the damage done since late August, it's not much, but it could motivate more locking and application activity this week," said Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily."