Home Price Deceleration Evident in Some Census Regions

Home prices as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) eked out another small increase in July, but monthly figures show a definite slowing in the rate of price increases.  FHFA's Home Price Index (HPI) rose 0.1 percent compared to June, the eighth consecutive monthly increase.  At the same time the agency revised downward its estimate of the June increase from the 0.4 percent originally reported to 0.3 percent.  Home prices rose an estimated 4.4 percent from July 2013 through the end of July 2014.

FHFA's index is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The index is roughly the same as in July 2005 and is 6.4 percent below the home price peak reached in April 2007. 

The monthly increase across the nine census divisions ranged from -0.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) to +0.4 percent in the East North Central division (Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) 

Two previously high-flying regions bore witness in July to the widely predicted pullback in price increases.  The highest positive year-over-year change was in the Pacific division (Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California) which posted a 7.2 percent increase from July 2013.  The index for that region, however was unchanged from June to July.  Prices actually fell by 0.3 percent tin he Mountain division (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico), after a year in which the annual increase, despite that drop was 5.8 percent.  The smallest year over year increase was in the Middle Atlantic division where prices were up 1.6 percent from July 2013.