MBS MID-DAY: Holding Near Unchanged Levels; Little Regard for Data

Occasionally the days after FOMC Announcements can can offer more volatility and faster-paced movement than that seen on the day of the announcement.  Today is not one of those days.  Markets got all dressed up for yesterday and now have nowhere to go.  Case in point, 10yr yields are at 2.622, the same level as Monday morning's highs.  Fannie 3.5s have similarly not broken below their recent weak points.

All we can really conclude about that is that it's good for now... good to not be stampeding higher in the same sort of frenzied philosophical shift that took place in mid 2013.  We can also conclude it's bad though... bad to have rates move higher quickly in September with no meaningful reprieve.  In a way, that confirms the recent negativity as something other than an anomaly.

One thing we have been able to count on recently is that the economic data just hasn't mattered much.  This morning's Jobless Claims report was much stronger than expected, and the Housing Starts data was arguably "OK" by the time we consider the hefty revision to the previous month's numbers.  Bond markets looked like they might care briefly, but were soon back to pre-data levels and haven't made any attempt to break to weaker levels since.  That said--and in the spirit of the "nowhere to go" theme--neither have we moved convincingly in the other direction.  We're just stuck very near unchanged levels, waiting for the next thing to care about.