Today has brought a decent dose of volatility to bond markets. Overnight trading saw Treasury yields rise somewhat abruptly during Asian hours. The European hours took things in the other direction--so much so, that MBS and Treasuries were in positive territory at the open.
Jobless Claims data was weaker than expected and Import Prices were lower than expected. Both of these things are good for bond markets. MBS rose from 102-15 to 102-22 by 9:30am (incidentally, the time stock markets open for cash trading). Since then, bonds have been leaking back toward unchanged levels, but remain just barely in positive territory.
The next key event of the day--and one that could be behind some of the leakage--is the 30yr Bond auction coming up in just under an hour. This is also the last auction of the week, which can occasionally result in a more positive response compared to other auctions, all other things being equal.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
| MBS | FNMA 3.0 98-26 : +0-03 | FNMA 3.5 102-17 : +0-03 | FNMA 4.0 105-20 : +0-02 |
| Treasuries | 2 YR 0.4078 : -0.0082 | 10 YR 2.4174 : -0.0106 | 30 YR 3.2367 : -0.0043 |
| Pricing as of 8/14/14 12:13PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
9:28AM : Bond Markets Bounce Back From Overnight Weakness
Live Chat Featured Comments
Michael Gillani : "I will say that since I started getting my lo's memberships on here, there has been a noticeable difference in lock/float mentality, market understanding and economic data following, which has all lead to better production! Definitely invaluable without debate!"
Matthew Graham : "Sadly (but happily for you), those with post-baccalaureate degrees are not representative of the swath of society that needs to come out of its shell."
Hugh W. Page : "Right. When my daughter who is 27 and a recent law school graduate with a gazillion dollars in student loans is able to get into a home I'll know it's all good now :)"
Matthew Graham : "My little brother is 29. I will put together an index of him and his friends that tracks employment, wages, reserves, and level of interest in homeownership. Once that reads "yes, >$20/hr, >6mo PITI, and HIGH," we'll know we're on to something. So let's reconvene to discuss in what... say 5-10 years?"
Hugh W. Page : "Yes we will. I wish my crystal ball was working again. I threw it away years ago :)"
Matthew Graham : "We'll know it when we see it!"
Hugh W. Page : "And it's a great analysis. Trying to figure out when the dynamic you just described begins to flip to something different and the implications of that change is kind of daunting to me."
Matthew Graham : "If it's any consolation, I don't think it's really able to be figured out. Thematically, the European wet blanket on bond yields is pretty good. The low wage growth story is pretty good. The US stock market being "best of the worst" is pretty good. Then there's that whole esoteric psych-economic shell-shock emanating from 2008--the X-factor that puzzles pundits, but that rounds out the analysis. That's how I see it anyway."
Matthew Graham : "HP, I'm not sure what it means. The "lower rates" conclusion would only be on a relative basis. I guess my tacit conclusion was that it's better to be where we are, with no obvious room to run."
Hugh W. Page : "MG, logically based on past history in the charat it seems to indicate the spreads should now narrow which I think means lower rates in the US going forward but of course logic can be fleeting in these times."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. JULY IMPORT PRICES -0.2 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.3 PCT) VS JUNE +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 311,000 AUG 9 WEEK (CONSENSUS 295,000) FROM 290,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 289,000)"