MBS MID-DAY: Some Volatility, But Bonds Staying Inside Yesterday's Ranges For Now

By: Matthew Graham •

Both MBS and Treasuries have gone no higher or lower than they did yesterday, though they've made relatively quick work of exploring most of those ranges.  Treasuries were fairly calm overnight despite significantly weaker economic data out of Germany and the lowest inflation reading since early 2009 for Italy. 

Domestic trading began with bonds roughly in line with Monday's 5pm levels.  The first move was into stronger territory, but this reversed as a part of a concerted move between global equities markets and European bond markets.

The weakness in US Treasuries was keeping decent pace with the rest of the market until several rather large block trades came through around 10:10am.  Could these have been in response to 10am JOLTS data?  No...

It's not uncommon for some sources to discuss the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) as a market mover, and this may well be the case today as the Treasury weakness corresponded with strong JOLTS data.  BUT it is absolutely not a market mover today.  There was LESS than zero response to the 10am data at 10am.  'Conjecture' is the only case to be made if we imagine that the bigger block trades 10 minutes later were somehow waiting to see how June's employment data was rounded out.  That raises another interesting point about JOLTS.  It's for JUNE!  That was a while ago now!  Not a market mover in the here and now! 

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
98-17 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
102-09 : +0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-14 : +0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.4440 : +0.0000
10 YR
2.4330 : +0.0130
30 YR
3.2490 : +0.0160
Pricing as of 8/12/14 11:57AMEST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:14AM  :  Bouncing Back From Earlier Weakness; Strong Technicals
10:15AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Very Slight Negative Reprice Risk Already
9:44AM  :  Bond Markets remain in Yesterday's Range, Helped by EU Econ Data and Ukraine
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Hodges  :  "so does Calyx"
Sung Kim  :  "whats interesting is that Encompass reduces income"
Matt Hodges  :  "fannie: If the rental income (or loss) relates to a property other than the borrower's principal residence: • If the monthly qualifying rental income (as defined above) minus the full PITIA is positive, it must be added to the borrower’s total monthly income. • If the monthly qualifying rental income minus PITIA is negative, the monthly net rental loss must be added to the borrower’s total monthly obligations. "
Justin Heiden  :  "TM...you will need to add back non-cash expenses (depreciation, ammortization, depletion) and the net will be subtracted from the w2 wages"
Tim McNerney  :  "w2 employee with losses on rental properties---will those losses come off the income of the w2?"
Matt Hodges  :  "must have a clear to start the job - no contingencies, max 60 days, post-close collection of 30 days"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Scenario help please. VA Loan. Marine leaving service and starting new job on 9/15. Will also get VA Benefits. I thought I remember somewhere we don't have to wait on 30 days of paystubs and/or receipt of benefits if we can document how much they will receive and they will receive it before first payment or something like that. Can't find in AllRegs. Am I mistaken?"