MBS MID-DAY: Weakness Persists Despite Rotten New Home Sales Data

By: Matthew Graham

Typically, negative economic data on the scale of this morning's New Home Sales would be a clearly positive factor for bond prices.  Sales fell at their fastest pace since last July and last month's strong report was revised to mediocre levels.  In one fell swoop, the entire shape of 2014 New Home Sales went from "gradually improving" to "sideways and maybe slightly weaker." 

Yet bond markets barely batted an eye at the data!  At best, we could say that it helped stem the existing losses and encourage sideways movement, but it certainly didn't prompt any major bounce back. 

Pervasive weakness had been a problem almost right from the start of the overnight session.  After recovering to 'unchanged' by the start of the European session, US Treasuries were almost exclusively higher in yield for the rest of the night.  Stronger Jobless Claims data didn't help, but even then, there is EXISTING weakness in bond markets today. 

The potential saving grace at the moment is the supportive ceiling that's being carved out at 2.518% in 10yr yields.  A break above that would confirm a shift up and out of the low, narrow, mid-July trend we've recently enjoyed.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
98-07 : -0-12
FNMA 3.5
102-04 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
105-11 : -0-09
Treasuries
2 YR
0.4919 : +0.0159
10 YR
2.5106 : +0.0466
30 YR
3.3012 : +0.0432
Pricing as of 7/24/14 12:26PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:49AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Still Here!
10:20AM  :  Horrid New Home Sales Data Prompts Only a Modest Bounce
9:57AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Another Day With Early Negative Reprice Risk
8:51AM  :  Bond Markets Notably Weaker Overnight, and Again After Claims Data

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Tony Cangas  :  "hi balance is on pg 6"
Tony Cangas  :  "http://mndne.ws/Oz02he"
dustin mcalister  :  "anyone have a quick link for agency jumbo matrix"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JUNE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 406,000 UNIT ANN. RATE (CONS. 479,000) VS MAY 442,000 UNIT RATE (PREV 504,000)"
Sung Kim  :  "they are a bit exhausted, but dont worry, they start ramping around 12pm"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Equities not as enthused out of the gate by claims as bonds were."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 284,000 JULY 19 WEEK, LOWEST SINCE FEB 2006 (CONSENSUS 308,000) FROM 303,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 302,000)"
Christopher Stevens  :  "form David Stevens "In recent days other executives have weighed whether they, too, should pull back. You limit your risk by tightening the credit box. I could see other institutions scale back.""
Christopher Stevens  :  "Another article on JPM retreating from FHA loans. And BB&T said they may be subject of HUD investigation.http://mndne.ws/1mInkKw"