MBS RECAP: With Nothing Better to do, Bonds Follow Stocks and Headlines

If you haven't heard already (say, like 7 or 8 times from us--both before and after the fact), today's calendar was fairly light for bond markets.  In terms of scheduled economic data, there was nothing significant.  The slow nature of the day was reinforced right out of the gate as Japan was out on holiday (Japan is almost single-handedly responsible for the first several hours of overnight trading in Treasuries).

European trading didn't add much to the equation either.  Most of the movement came in response to  equities markets as well as a few headlines concerning the situation in Ukraine.  I'd hesitate, in general, to credit geopolitical headlines with too much movement at this point, however.  In the days that follow a big reaction to geopolitical risk, it tends to get too much credit for subsequent movements.  Sure, it's not as glamorous or cut-and-dry, but simple housekeeping for trading positions can be as much a motivation as anything on days like today.

MBS had a better day in terms of their recent underpeformance vs Treasuries (something we discussed as a probability last week).  To quantify that, Fannie 3.5s closed in slightly stronger territory than Friday's best levels while 10yr yields can't quite make the same claim.  Both ended the day just barely stronger after falling back from much stronger levels this morning.