MBS Week Ahead: Limited Data This Week, but Several Housing-Related Reports; Following Week is BIG

In many ways, the current week will serve as a prelude to the following week, which is exceptionally packed with big-ticket events.  From Wednesday to Friday (next week), we'll get the first look at Q2 GDP, ADP Employment, the last Treasury auction of the week, an FOMC Announcement, 'Month-End' (which can increase bond market activity/volatility), and NFP Friday on August 1st.  To whatever extent markets are willing to respond to economic data and monetary policy by then, it's our best chance to witness a break from what has been a mostly sideways range.

That's not a guarantee, however, because the reason for the sideways range has a lot to do with US bond markets being weighed down by global markets.  This is especially evident in Treasuries' most closely-related cousin, Germany's 10yr 'Bund.'  It's not alarming to see Bunds continue to outperform Treasuries.  Given the fact that they're more sensitive to geopolitical risk in Ukraine and that they're where everyone wants to be if anything bad happens in the Eurozone, Bund yields have every right to be low. 

Even so, at some level of outperformance, it's worth the risk and hassle to some investors to own Treasuries instead of Bunds.  We refer to this as "spillover demand."  Where would Treasuries be without it?  Probably moving higher...  In this chart, Treasuries are in Yellow and Bunds are in Red.

Just as Bunds find reason to react more to geopolitical risk than Treasuries, Treasuries are in turn more sensitive than MBS.  This makes for a dynamic where MBS have generally been more even-keeled over the past few months--helping facilitate a very narrow rate range.

As far as economic events worthy of inspiring volatility this week, our options are limited.  Today offers absolutely nothing, though Tuesday picks up a bit with Consumer Prices and Existing Home Sales.  After another quiet day on Wednesday, Thursday offers a decent line-up with Jobless claims and New Home Sales.  Durable Goods is the only report scheduled for Friday.  Geopolitical risk remains a consideration for markets, as does earnings season (bonds could tune into stock fluctuations for lack of anything better to do).