MBS RECAP: Weaker Trend Intact after Retail Sales and Yellen Testimony

As far as today's market movers are concerned, Retail Sales was dwarfed by Yellen, but most of the reaction to Yellen cancelled itself out.  In other words, Retail Sales accounted for the only decisive push into weaker territory this morning.  Yellen accounted for bigger moves but deposited trading levels right where they had been after Retail Sales.

The damage was anything but severe with Fannie 3.5s not even down an eighth at the moment and 10yr yields up less than a bp.  That said, yesterday was more decisively weak and today's more active session now acts as a sort of confirmation of that weakness. 

This keeps the pressure on bond markets from a technical standpoint in that the possibility of a reversal back to the higher end of the rate range is still alive.  The saving grace was that 10yr yields bounced nicely at 2.57, which is not only a well-traveled inflection point, but also the mid-point for a few technical studies.  Bottom line, staying under 2.57 keeps hope alive.