MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Decent Gains Without Help From Europe This Time

Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels.  Interestingly enough, this strength is not something that's easily pinned on Europe or other overt factors.  Treasuries have outperformed German Bunds (not something we'd be as likely to see if the strength was EU-led). 

While weakness in equities could be part of the explanation, Treasuries are clearly marching to the beat of their own drum to a large extent.  This leaves us with only tradeflows and technicals to credit for the strength.  And from that technical standpoint, most mainstream studies suggest we're not at risk of triggering a major reversal just yet. 

MBS are on the same sort of cruise control.  They started the day up just a bit from yesterday's POST-roll levels.  Keep in mind charts make it look like we're down in price because yesterday's portion of the chart is July coupons while today's is August.  August was always trading at lower prices, and the "roll" means we simply switch our point of view.