MBS Day Ahead: Surprisingly Enough, Still Fighting to Hold the Range

"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification.  While various examples offer convenient connections between MBS and Treasuries,  it's the latter that typically acts as the representative. 

Today's focus is on the range that tops out at 2.66% in the case of 10yr yields.  This roughly equates to 102-00 in terms of Fannie 3.5s, but naturally that will no longer be the case come Thursday night when MBS 'roll' (one of the several reasons to stay focused on Treasuries when considering broader trends in interest rates). 

We'll forgo an assessment of the lower bound of this range.  It could be viewed as 2.57 in the shorter term, but there's a strong case for 2.47 in the longer term.  Either way, the most recent battle took place at 2.66, as it did on six distinct occasions last month.

10yr yields had traded up to 2.692 during the day on Thursday, but returned below 2.66 by the close.  They also began Monday's session at 2.659, making candlestick charts look all the more respectful of the boundary (because the "real body" of a candlestick--the more prominent/wide midsection--aligns with opening and closing values.  These are green or red in the following chart).

Closing values are important in a technical sense because many technical studies rely on one daily mark.  The closing price/yield provides that mark.  With that in mind, a case continues to build for the importance of 2.66 as a supportive ceiling.  It also coincides with other technical studies that show early hints of a change in momentum following the early July weakness.

We don't really have enough volume or participation to conclude that any epic battles are being fought, or even that anyone would much care if yields again broke above 2.66.  But at the very least, we can conclude that--on a week with little else going on--a break above 2.66 would be more significant than any other random move higher in yield.

In other words, this is a yardstick for weakness.  "Above 2.66 and rising" = not so good.  "Convincing bounce at 2.66 and falling" = the range remains intact.  If we happen to get such a bounce, we'd probably look to 2.57 as the next sort of yardstick.

Today's events aren't especially inspirational, but they're in greater supply than yesterday's (which is not too difficult considering yesterday had zero).  They include two instances of Fed speeches in the afternoon as well as the 3yr Treasury Note auction.  Sometimes, even the 10am 'JOLTS' data (it's a funky, out-dated labor market metric) can garner what looks like a slight response. 

In general though, don't expect much--if any--market moving punch from today's events, but their presence may draw in better participation ahead of tomorrow's FOMC Minutes.