MBS RECAP: MBS Close Near Best Levels; Sell-Off Was Manageable Considering The Data

There's not much left to be said or concluded in terms of today's events (because it's a short day, and there simply hasn't been much time between now and the MBS Mid-Day).  Bond markets took an understandably big hit after the 288k vs 212k Nonfarm Payrolls print, and then began a steady march back toward lighter losses.  MBS specifically stumbled in the early afternoon, but recovered into the close.

On the surface, ending the day a mere 1/8th of a point lower in price seems like a 'win' in light of the data.  If we're only talking about today's day-over-day movement, it is indeed a win.

But the move was in the works for days--all part of the "new quarter" trading momentum as well as the increasing body of evidence supporting a stronger payrolls number. 

That evidence reached an apex yesterday with the big ADP beat.  It's not that ADP = NFP, simply that it rounded out a collection of other June employment data, all pointing to--at the very least--a slightly stronger reading. 

That made for an outsized reaction to a report that's been getting less and less important in 2014.  What we were really seeing was an attempt to get ahead of what then looked to be a forecast that was probably too low.  Today's tame reaction proves that.

Note: Markets are closed tomorrow for Independence Day