MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Continue Exploring Range Breakout

For a second day, bond markets and/or mortgage rates (take your pick) frolicked outside the walls of the castle.  In this case, that castle is "the range" for pretty much all of June.  In terms of mortgage rates, it was narrow enough that 4.25% was the best-execution rate for the entire month until yesterday when it moved to 4.125%. 

In terms of 10yr yields, the lower bound was 2.57.  The other way to look at it would be as the 25-day moving average below and the 100 day moving average above.  That's not as clean as using the 2.57 line, but pick your poison.  The updated charting functionality in the new version of MBS Live allows you to put both on the same chart.  Any way you slice it, the 2 rightmost candlesticks are indeed 'frolicking.'

Yesterday's motivation was the weaker GDP reading.  Today's was the weaker consumer spending data.  Either that or bond markets are simply in a bullish stance heading into the end of the quarter and Tuesday becomes risky.

Today was good though.  Bonds were even able to recover from a mild mid-day correction surrounding the 7yr auction.  MBS ended very near their best levels, up almost a quarter of a point at 102-25 in Fannie 3.5s.