MBS Day Ahead: Potential Volatility from Options Expiration, Otherwise Range-Watching

As bond markets continue to trade in the longest, narrowest sideways trend of the year (2.57-2.66 closing yields since 6/3), and as they continue to do this through major events and major economic data, we're left with no other option but to watch and wait for a break. 

It's probably coming soon too--almost certainly by next week if not today.  Whether or not that break means anything or is simply a milestone, remains to be seen.  For now, the most basic implication is that the direction of the break builds a case for the ongoing momentum.  In other words, if rates go up, they're that much more likely to keep going up until they reach their next major technical battle (mid 2.7's roughly, in terms of 10yr yields, which translates to 4.375% on rate sheets at the moment).

Today has not interesting scheduled data.  Volatility could still come courtesy of futures and options expirations.  This isn't anything fancy--simply the last day of the month to trade certain futures and options.  That can create some housekeeping needs for traders, thus making for guaranteed buying/selling that other traders may then react to.  In short, it adds some motivation to one side of the equation or the other, but we don't get to know which or how much until it's happening.