MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Quiet Week Leaves Time to Reflect

In stark contrast to the previous week, this one is very light in terms of economic data and events.  That relative silence coincides well with rates returning to a crossroads of sorts. 

When the pace of events quickened over the past three weeks, so too did the pace of market movement.  Yields broke the previous 2014 range and moved forcefully to new lows.

But with last weeks losses, they've returned just back inside that 2014 range--close enough to the edge to easily break lower again or to confirm reentry into the uninteresting sideways range.  

The only significant economic data of the week arrives on Thursday with Retail Sales.  The rest of Thursday's data plays a competent supporting role, and the afternoon brings the end of 3 days of Treasury Auctions. 

On a final note, European bond markets are proving to be a nearly constant consideration.  If you didn't catch Friday's Recap, it's hard not to see Treasuries being incessantly pulled lower (read it HERE).  All that to say, even if domestic events are subdued this week, if European bonds continue rallying, Treasuries would be hard-pressed to do any serious selling.