MBS RECAP: Stronger Start, Weaker Finish, Another NFP Overshadowed by Europe
Thinking back to the last NFP report, we had that big beat (288k vs 215k forecast), that ultimately ended in gains for bond markets. That was pretty intense, and European events were clearly the dark horse.
Thinking back to the NFP before that, we had a reasonable result of 192k vs 206k forecast and a nice revision higher in the previous report. Not the sort of thing that should have caused a bond market rally, but it did, thanks again--quite clearly--to the day's more meaningful news story about the ECB modelling a QE package.
And now today... the dark horse is back. Post-ECB party time in Europe gave overseas yields a thorough juicing overnight. Germany hit 1.33% for the 3rd time since May 28th. US Treasuries only reluctantly followed while EU markets outperformed.
After NFP hit, Treasuries first instinct was to head to 2.6, but EU bonds didn't budge. They didn't sell off at all heading into the data, and they exhibited no knee jerk after the release. Indeed there was no knee jerk in Treasuries either. There was simply a domestic market that wanted to sell-off, but was faced with the reality that European bond markets would have none of it. So we all played Europe's game until they'd bottomed out, and then we began losing the ground that domestic traders wanted us to lose from the outset.
The icing on this cake came when European markets closed and Treasuries immediately jumped back over 2.59 in 10yr yields. The timing is too coincidental as you can see in the chart (also shows EU bonds' resolve heading into NFP).
| MBS | FNMA 3.0 98-02 : -0-03 | FNMA 3.5 102-12 : -0-03 | FNMA 4.0 105-20 : -0-01 |
| Treasuries | 2 YR 0.4028 : +0.0198 | 10 YR 2.5968 : +0.0128 | 30 YR 3.4396 : +0.0076 |
| Pricing as of 6/6/14 4:27PMEST | |||