MBS MID-DAY: 5 Day Trend of Bond Market Weakness Continues After Data

It would have been fair to hope that recent losses in bond markets would be leveling off after losing ground abruptly over the past 4 days.  Perhaps the end of May was simply a bit overdone in terms of snowball buying and the first part of June would simply stand as a bit of an 'unwinding' process.  Heck, that's not even an uncommon phenomenon heading into new months!

But now the selling is looking even more overdone than the past few rallies.  Had bonds finally bounced yesterday, that might not have been the case, but now we're in to the 2.61's in 10yr yields.  Fannie 3.5s are thankfully still unchanged on the day, but only thanks to yesterday's underperformance.

And this comes in spite of ostensibly supportive data.  The once-important ADP Employment numbers were weaker than expected, and while bonds rallied tepidly at first, they quickly had second thoughts.  10's had given up more than half of their gains before the morning's only other market-moving report came out--a stronger-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.  After that, yields moved fairly quickly into negative territory, though maybe, just maybe they're trying to dig in for some support at 2.61.