MBS MID-DAY: Volatility Inside Narrow Range; Little-Changed from Friday

Much like the magic that happens when you give an old wooden paddle-ball/string toy to a kid raised in the electronic generation, markets found a surprisingly high entertainment value in a very mundane trading range this morning.  If that analogy doesn't resonate with you, here are the unadorned facts.

We've seen 4 prominent changes in tone in the first three hours this morning.  Despite being well-contained by the recent trading range, Treasuries and MBS have managed to go on seemingly quick runs to new intraday highs and lows.

The first move of the day was quickly into weaker territory following the stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data at 8:30am.  Whether it was because the data had weak internals (and it did) or due to a technically supportive ceiling in Treasuries, the weakness reversed course and gave way to positive territory about half an hour later.

A strong reading on Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for the services sector combined with comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at 9:45 to push MBS and Treasuries back into negative territory.   From there, the same technical support kicked in for Treasuries (marked by 2.55% in 10yr yields), and bond markets bounced back toward unchanged levels.

Specifically, 10yr yields are almost perfectly unchanged at the moment, and MBS are 1-2 ticks stronger.   There were no discernible reactions to home price data at 9am (stronger than expected), nor to the Consumer Confidence data at 10am (as expected).