MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness Continues; Short Day Tomorrow

Markets close at 2pm tomorrow in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday, and will be fully closed on Monday.  With that in mind, we've essentially made it through the entire week without anything at all happening!  That sounds like an exaggeration, and I suppose it is if you want to be literal about it, but from a market-watching standpoint, we didn't need to know anything about any of the week's events judging by how bonds have moved.

Reason being, Treasury yields have simply been trending higher in yield in a fairly classic consolidation pattern after breaking the 2.57 barrier and hitting 2.473 last week.  They (10yr yields) were as high as 2.568 overnight, bringing the consolidation move to a close.  If tomorrow takes yields above 2.57 or below 2.52 (which would break the linear consolidation pattern), it wouldn't have the same technical significance as a normal Friday that remained open for a full session and didn't fall before a 3-day weekend.

With that being the case, we'll probably be waiting until Tuesday until we can hope to get clues on how the post-range-break bond market will evolve.  A bit of a caveat to the Treasury movement is that MBS have been noticeably outperforming.  That doesn't really affect the day-to-day momentum in mortgage rates, but it has helped rate sheets hold their ground over the past few days while Treasuries have weakened.

Today was no exception.  Bond markets began leaking after the 10am data (though not necessarily because of it), and MBS were able to retain about half of yesterday's gains while Treasury yields are drifting out at new highs.