MBS RECAP: Weaker to Start; Back in the Range by Afternoon

By: Matthew Graham

It was a generally quiet day for bond markets, though that wasn't destined to be the case at the open.  Treasuries had weakened slightly overnight and the onset of domestic trading only exacerbated the weakness at first.  10yr yields briefly matched their highest levels in a week before a supportive technical bounce.  MBS were also in weaker territory until a slightly weaker Consumer Confidence reading facilitated a return to yesterday's range.

The afternoon saw a gradual, almost flat move in the same positive direction.  Some of the improvement has been attributed to S&P's downgrade of several European banks as well as volatility working its way through the Treasury complex relating to Apple's big corporate bond offering.

Considering the pace of movement though, assigning blame isn't really necessary (or even possible).  Suffice it to say that rates found themselves above the center of the range this morning and moved back toward the center this afternoon.  The same thing happened in reverse yesterday, but the data calendar should shake things up increasingly in the next 3 days.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
97-03 : +0-01
FNMA 3.5
101-06 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
104-14 : +0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.4457 : +0.0157
10 YR
2.6932 : +0.0162
30 YR
3.4917 : +0.0307
Pricing as of 4/29/14 3:34PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:10PM  :  Slow and Steady and Slightly Improved Into Afternoon
10:17AM  :  Bond Markets Improve Following Weaker Consumer Confidence Data
9:31AM  :  Looking For Support After Opening Weaker

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PRO-RUSSIAN GUNMEN OPEN FIRE WITH AUTOMATIC WEAPONS ON POLICE HQ IN EASTERN UKRAINIAN CITY OF LUHANSK - REUTERS WITNESS"
Matthew Graham  :  "domestic markets must be interested in NFP this week. I feel like we'd get a visible response in Treasuries if that'd come across last week."
Matthew Graham  :  "illustrates how markets can pick and choose what is reaction-worthy when it suits trading goals and positions"
Brent Borcherding  :  "It's important in the absence of anything more important, irrelevant the week of NFP."
Hugh W. Page  :  "This seems like just more of the same in Ukraine? I think Ukraine events have to move towards something really unexpected for a strong reaction. I don't know."
Hugh W. Page  :  "A lot of different potential flash points simmering out there but the markets seem eerily tranquil to me. Which of course makes me nervous."
Sung Kim  :  "has anyone ever seen this condition on USDA "borrower's wife to provide signed letter stating that she is not currently working and has no plans to obtain work""
Hugh W. Page  :  "Oh yes SK"
Ted Rood  :  "Logical, can't have too much household income."
Hugh W. Page  :  "I just closed a USDA where the wife quit working in 2013 end of the year and we had to get a VOE from the previous employer to verify she wasn't working there anymore AND a letter from her stating the same. "
John Paul Mulchay  :  "anyone in here think Johnson/Crapo a good plan?"
Hugh W. Page  :  "In principal I think it's a step in the right direction but I honestly haven't studied the details deeply."
Jason Anker  :  "i dont like the high costs associated and now that f&f make money why do we want change?"
John Paul Mulchay  :  "FNMA/FHMC worked for what, 70 some years until we got all exotic with loans and didn't look at any paperwork? Thinking that after Dodd/Frank implementation, we should see if any more tinkering really is even necessary. "
Jason Anker  :  "just like us to fix a problem after its been fixed. nothign like fixing it twice"