MBS Week Ahead: Action-Packed Week Includes Fed Announcement and Nonfarm Payrolls

If calendar events like economic reports and monetary policy announcements end up being the impetus for bond markets to break out of their 3-Month sideways range, this week has a ton of potential.  As the continual caveat must be, the presence of "potential" doesn't guarantee movement--a fact of which we've been made painfully aware by the heretofore relentless ability for bond markets to avoid commitment. 

In other words, there's no telling if this will be the week that finally leads 10yr yields (our most reliable technical benchmark for overall bond market momentum) out of the ongoing 2.6-2.8 range.  Certainly though, a concerted effort on the part of this week's economic data alone would be hard to ignore.  The only way a series of lopsided economic reports won't get their way this week (i.e. stronger data suggesting higher rates or weaker data suggesting lower rates) is if the non-data considerations surprise in the other direction. 

What are the non-data considerations?  Chiefly, FOMC and Geopolitical risk.  This week's FOMC Announcement arrives alone with no Yellen press conference or Fed member forecasts.  That, in and of itself, decreases the prospects for a volatile reaction, not to mention the fact that the Fed seems fairly well set on the course of $10bln/mo tapering and rate hike some time in mid-to-late 2015.

Ukraine-related headlines are less certain.  It's tough to say how much of an effect is currently priced-in to the domestic bond market considering we were sideways in the same old range before events in Ukraine began making news.  Suffice it to say, market participants are tuned in to the headlines and are reacting if they're meaningful enough.

Apart from Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and FOMC on Wednesday, there are plenty of other meaty bits of data.  The only other top tier reports (in terms of market moving potential), are Chicago PMI on Wednesday and ISM Manufacturing on Thursday, but many others come close.  These include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, ADP and GDP on Wednesday, and the 8:30am data on Thursday (Jobless Claims, Incomes/Outlays, Yellen speech).

The noticeable absence in the preceding discussion would be Monday.  The only quasi-meaningful data will be Pending Home Sales at 10am.  There's not a ton of market moving potential in this report, but it does generally do a good job of framing the approach to next month's Existing Home Sales.  Because of the ongoing stagnation there as well as the stagnant forecast for today's data, any meaningful 'beat' (actual result coming in higher than forecast) could put bond markets on the back foot out of the gate.