MBS Day Ahead: Week's First Economic Data and Last Treasury Auction

Bond markets bounced back into positive territory after yesterday's FOMC Minutes.  MBS fared better than the longer-dated Treasuries (10's and 30's), but it's very likely that some of the Treasury weakness in those two particular maturities can be attributed to the fact that they are the subjects of yesterday and today's auctions.

Even then, it's hard not to be discouraged by 10yr yields running smack into resistance at Tuesday's lows, which is also one of the key retracement levels from the 2.47-3.01 range.

Sure, 2.68.  So what?  Maybe the minutes just didn't account for much movement.  That assessment might work, but not if you ask equities.

All that said, there are 'death crosses' out there and 'support' from moving averages.  For instance, it might sound impressive to note that 10's bounced off their 21, 40, 80, 100, and every other kind of moving average (OK, so not EVERY other kind, but those kinds anyway).  The problem is that all these moving averages are converging because of the recent relatively epic flatness.  Bouncing on these moving averages doesn't mean much until 10's break away from the gravity that keeps bringing them back.

Today brings the week's first significant economic data with Jobless Claims at 8:30am.  The last Treasury auction of the week comes in at 1pm with 30yr Bonds.  If there has been auction-related hesitation playing a part in yesterday's weakness, we might see some relief after that (in the sense that markets could be relieved that there's no longer Treasury supply that must be purchased, which sometimes results in slight net-positivity).