MBS RECAP: NFP Countdown Continues; Bond Markets Feeling Defensive

By: Matthew Graham •

Bond markets sold off absolutely as much as they could have today while still technically staying inside the longer-term "sideways" range leading up to NFP Friday.  Moderate amounts of weakness were seen overnight and after the ADP data in the morning as well as Factory Orders.  As we sometimes discuss, it's not uncommon to see a "lead-off" ahead of the NFP release, but we're not even there yet. 

This chart of 10yr yields is actually a good analog for mortgage rates as both are on the doorstep of slightly higher levels from early January.  It's entirely possible that tomorrow's events could officially cause the "lead-off" (i.e. a break above this longer-term sideways range) or simply suggest that yields head back to more central territory before Friday morning's data. 

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
96-02 : -0-11
FNMA 3.5
100-05 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
103-19 : -0-09
Treasuries
2 YR
0.4579 : +0.0239
10 YR
2.8045 : +0.0455
30 YR
3.6473 : +0.0433
Pricing as of 4/2/14 4:05PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:13PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Revisiting Weakest Levels and Ongoing Reprice Risk
10:31AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Getting into Riskier Territory Now as MBS Extend Losses
10:10AM  :  10yr Yields Crest 2.80, MBS at Fresh Lows After Factory Orders Data
9:30AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS hit New Lows as pre-NFP Lead-off Threatens to Begin
8:27AM  :  Bond Markets Initially Weaker After 'Near-Consensus' ADP Numbers
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Chris Kopec  :  "Has anyone encountered problems with cash deposits, and overcome them? I have an Old School customer that has a cash arrangement with his tenant and it's steering a new purchase deal unto the rocks. Any advise would be greatly appreciated. "
Curt Sandfort  :  "as in, he pays rent in cash, or as in, he collects rent in cash and doesn't report on sched E"
Chris Kopec  :  "The information will be reported on Sch E (bought house in May)"
Sung Kim  :  "get a copy of the lease and a letter of explanation if the cash deposits are rent"
Diana Merritt  :  "One time repairs or improvements can be excluded from Sch E expense, provided you have documentation that substantiates. "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S LOCKHART SAYS FIRST RATE HIKE LIKELY IN SECOND HALF OF 2015"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Okay so Bullard says early 2015 and Lockhart says later 2015. Glad we're clear on that."
Matthew Graham  :  "Bullard is like the Fed's initial bombardment to soften up enemy defenses."
Matthew Graham  :  "in medieval times, he'd be like the rotting bovine carcasses flung over castle walls weeks in advance of a siege. In this case the castle is the low rate time frame consensus"
Matthew Graham  :  "Fed is just trying to infect enough of the population with the plague so that when the siege begins, it's met with less resistance. "