MBS Day Ahead: Quiet Week For Bond Markets to Ponder Post-NFP Fate

After moving through the worst week of losses since mid-August, bond markets are left to consider whether it's time fully abandon February's weather-related, indecisive range, or if it's merely been stretched to slightly weaker levels.  With 10yr yields still in the 2.7's, it could still go either way. 

Given the speed of last week's move and the recent high yields achieved, it might NOT seem like it could go either way, but keep in mind that some of that weakness was attributable to the unwinding of bond market positivity driven by Ukraine tensions.  Well before NFP the easing of those tensions accounted for a big piece of the weakness.

Similarly inspiring market movers are in scarce supply during the first three days of this week.  There are no top tier data releases all week, and no 2nd tier data until Thursday (Retail Sales, Jobless Claims).  Before that, very few of the market moving considerations are overt.  They include several Fed speeches and the Treasury Auction cycle. 

Unexpected and unseen trading motivations stand a bigger chance to shake things up though.  These would include ongoing Ukraine headlines (situation may have calmed last week, but it's certainly not over) and a heavy calendar of corporate debt issuance.  One nice thing about the absence of relevant economic data is that it gives bonds a chance to show their predisposition with respect to the range.  In other words, if we're to see some resilience at Friday's weakest levels (just over 2.81% in terms of 10yr yields), we shouldn't have to wait too long to find out.  If that happens, it's a vote in favor of "holding a central range," even if it's a higher version than the 2.68-2.78 version from mid February.