MBS RECAP: Only Two Interesting Minutes of the Day

By: Matthew Graham •

8:30-8:32...  These were the only two minutes of the day where anything interesting was happening for bond markets.  It wasn't the good kind of 'interesting' either as stronger employment data sparked big, fast selling before completely leaving the building for the weekend.

After 8:32am, the grind began and MBS never went any lower for the rest of the day.  That said, neither MBS or Treasuries really went much of anywhere.  To be fair to MBS, they held up a bit better, and are coasting out at 104-05 (Fannie 4.0s) after hitting 104-00 this morning.  10yr yields have been in a 1bp range since 11am.

Today's employment data was the first significant eye-opener regarding the impact of the weather on recent economic data.  Not only did it confirm the weather had an effect, but it also suggested that maybe things really aren't so bad by the time we account for it.  Making that case with market bears is going to take more than just the one piece of data though, which is likely why MBS are only off 9 ticks day-over day and 10yr yields only up 5.5bps.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
96-06 : -0-13
FNMA 3.5
100-18 : -0-10
FNMA 4.0
104-05 : -0-09
Treasuries
2 YR
0.3733 : +0.0283
10 YR
2.7915 : +0.0545
30 YR
3.7250 : +0.0390
Pricing as of 3/7/14 4:26PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:41AM  :  What does all that "Weather Stuff" mean in the Payrolls Data?
8:51AM  :  The Weather was Such a Big Deal, BLS Spent a lot of Time Talking About it
8:32AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: NFP Stronger Than Forecast; Major Sell-off for Bond Markets
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Joseph Daquino  :  "Always learning something new in MND"
Robert Rippy  :  "Is there a statute of limitations on CAIVRS? I have a client looking at USDA but had a foreclosure almost 10 years ago on a previous USDA loan."
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "how much credibility would the NFP lose if BLS revises lower next month given MG's explanation? more importantly, would markets care?"
Matthew Graham  :  "As I'm sure you'd guess, it would greatly depend on the magnitude and composition of the revision. "
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "is the market looking at NFP having created 175K jobs or 175 + a possible 48K more?"
Sung Kim  :  "looks like i am only off .25-.375 from yesterday. we dodged a bullet IMO, next week seems light on data, so hope to see us move back in to the belly of the range"