Monday 12/1 … Week to Come

By: Victor Burek •

The week ahead is another action packed week of economic reports. 

Monday

  1. Construction spending, economists expecting a -0.9% drop.
  2. ISM Index, economists expecting a 38.0 reading.  This report is a measure of the strength of our manufacturing segment of our economy.  

Wednesday

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1.       Productivity, economists expecting a 0.9% rise after last months rise of 1.1%.  This is important as it measures the efficiency of  our labor force.  The more efficient the better as this helps to reduce wage based inflation.

2.      ISM Services Index, economists expecting a 42.6 reading. 

Thursday

  1. Jobless claims, expecting to come in at 530,000 after last weeks 529,000.
  2. Factory Orders, economists expecting a drop of -2.7%.  

Friday

  1. Nonfarm Payrolls, economists expecting a loss of -300,000 jobs after last months drop of -240,000.  This is the single most important report we get monthly as it signals future wage inflation.  If we have low unemployment, employers will have to pay people more money to attract them for employment.  This causes payrolls to increase, which is past along to the consumer as higher prices.  And as stated many times, our biggest enemy is inflation.
  2. Unemployment numbers, economists expecting a 6.8% reading after last months 6.5%.  

We will keep you posted as the results of these reports are released.    

Last week was a great week for consumers as mortgage rates dropped over a half a percent.  This was a result of the government announcing a huge investment into mortgage backed securities.   Usually after a huge rally, you see a pull back.  We did not get that pull back last week and so far this morning we are at levels not seen in quite some time.  Can this trend continue?  Very possible, but we expect to see some kind of pull back by years end followed by another rally next year.  During times like these a bird in hand is worth more then 2 in the bush.  What I mean by that is that when a 30 year mortgage is close to 5%, it is always a good time to lock.  It is my belief that we will have a period of time of very low rates as low rates will help to get our economy going specifically the housing market, but we might have to wait until next year.  So far this year, we have had rates close to these levels but they only held for a day or 2 then moved considerably higher.  Will this happen now?  So far this morning we are doing well but have some concern.  First of all, after a huge rally you usually experience a pull back.  Secondly, US treasuries are at all time low yields and are due to correct and sell off driving yields higher.  Sometimes when that happens, they take mbs with them.  So, we would not be surprised to see this happen again.  

Stay tuned to the blog and we will keep you posted.  If you have been considering refinancing or buying a new home, now is the time to contact your broker and get the ball rolling.  These low rates will not last forever!!!!