MBS Day Ahead: Another Potentially Weak Report for Markets to Disregard

It continues to be a frustrating time for bond markets--prevented, as they are from rallying very much on strong data, but with few other reasons to sell-off abruptly.  All of the above hinges on the now incessantly discussed "weather issues." 

We saw a perfect example of this silly dynamic with yesterday's Philly Fed release.  It was much weaker than expected, but because that weakness can be traced to the weather to some unknown extent, bond markets can't derive the same amount of benefit as they otherwise might.

This, in itself, wasn't sufficient reason for the selling pressure yesterday, but there were less overt considerations such as ebbs and flows related to corporate bond issuance, not to mention the fairly small scale of the movement overall. 

Beyond that minutia, it's worth considering that 10yr yields have essentially just moved right back to the most middling of middle grounds, "anything near 2.75."  After all, when market watchers look back on mid-2013 through February 2014, it can all be summed up as a range trade between 2.5 and 3.0, roughly.

The only relevant piece of economic data on the calendar today is Existing Home Sales (EHS).  Here's a chart of this week's housing data with today' forecast level for EHS added in (NAHB and Housing Starts already reported, of course).  Once again, the risk for bond markets is that bad data is disregarded due to weather and good data can only hurt.