MBS MID-DAY: Cautious Improvement After Weaker Data

By: Matthew Graham

Bond markets were reasonably stronger overnight, mostly by way of consolidating the past three days of weakness.  Weaker economic data (Retail Sales and Jobless Claims) furthered that cause, but not resoundingly.  10yr yields are floating just above their 21-day moving average at 2.741 and they might not be too willing to take a run at that until after the auction (30yr Bond, but can affect 10's and MBS as well) at 1pm.

MBS are outperforming 10yr Treasuires, but fairly well in line with 5's and 7's.  Chalk this up to yesterday's 10yr auction creating distributive needs specifically in 10's (and being met with less demand than expected). 

All in all, today's strength is underwhelming in the context of the past 10 days.  It ends up looking like a regularly scheduled bounce to the other side of a trend that's still moving higher.  Again, it's up to the post-auction trading to affirm or deny.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
96-16 : +0-12
FNMA 3.5
100-27 : +0-10
FNMA 4.0
104-12 : +0-09
Treasuries
2 YR
0.3230 : -0.0240
10 YR
2.7482 : -0.0148
30 YR
3.6975 : -0.0245
Pricing as of 2/13/14 11:56AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:57AM  :  Bond Markets Stronger Overnight, Stronger Still Following Data

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Gaius Rossini  :  "do you guys think closings (not applications) in january were lower because of the weather?"
Ira Selwin  :  "I think it could have had an impact in certain areas"
Ira Selwin  :  "a lot of companies working with skeleton crews, some areas dealt with power outages"
johnmurphy  :  "hard to list/show with 4 feet of snow on the ground"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 339,000 FEB. 8 WEEK (CONSENSUS 330,000) FROM 331,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 331,000)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 2.953 MLN FEB. 1 WEEK FROM 2.971 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.964 MLN)"