MBS MID-DAY: Cautious Improvement After Weaker Data

Bond markets were reasonably stronger overnight, mostly by way of consolidating the past three days of weakness.  Weaker economic data (Retail Sales and Jobless Claims) furthered that cause, but not resoundingly.  10yr yields are floating just above their 21-day moving average at 2.741 and they might not be too willing to take a run at that until after the auction (30yr Bond, but can affect 10's and MBS as well) at 1pm.

MBS are outperforming 10yr Treasuires, but fairly well in line with 5's and 7's.  Chalk this up to yesterday's 10yr auction creating distributive needs specifically in 10's (and being met with less demand than expected). 

All in all, today's strength is underwhelming in the context of the past 10 days.  It ends up looking like a regularly scheduled bounce to the other side of a trend that's still moving higher.  Again, it's up to the post-auction trading to affirm or deny.