MBS Week Ahead: Markets Look Elsewhere for Clues After Lackluster Jobs Report

Friday's Employment Situation was weaker than expected, but failed to provide a clear confirmation for last month's numbers (which were weaker still).  That said, it's not necessarily a simple "yes or no" question as far as that confirmation is concerned.  Certainly, job creation isn't as strong as it should be based on these number, but that qualitative assessment is only important in the longer term.

In the short term, all that matters is what markets and the Fed do with the data.  If Friday afternoon is any indication, bond markets weren't overjoyed.  Stocks were.

Charts increasingly give the impression that global markets are pulling back from the ostensible brink of oblivion that seemed to be setting in at the beginning of the month.  The risk for MBS and Treasuries is that they're deprived of an apparent source of positivity in that case and this could see technical levels continue stepping back from the 2014 rally--a corner that's in the process of being turned presently.

These technical developments will continue to tell us more about how markets are digesting the payrolls numbers and other considerations. Events in the week ahead will potentially tell us more about how the Fed will handle it.  Particularly, Janet Yellen's first Humphrey Hawkins testimonies will be given on Tuesday and Thursday.  If she offers clues as to the Fed's stance on the consecutive downbeat payrolls prints, markets will be listening.

The surrounding data is hard to come by and doesn't really start until Thursday morning with Jobless Claims and Retail Sales.  There are several second tier reports on Friday as well.