MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Start Strong, Lose Ground as Stocks Hold Theirs

It's important to note that a majority of today's movement has arrived BETWEEN the two big instances of economic data as opposed to immediately in their wake.  It's equally important to note that all it took for this weakness was for equities markets to hold their ground. 

Bond yields are "lifting off" their recent floor without being pushed up by equities (which have recently been more proportionally connected).  In other words, bond markets are showing some weakness of their own accord here.  It's not the data and not entirely stock-market-related.  So movements like those seen in the chart below speak to one of two things: either a consolidation of the recent positive momentum, or an outright shift.  Too soon to tell which, and that could continue to be the case until Friday morning after NFP.

Here's a quick play by play of the day so far:

• bond markets opened slightly stronger after a ho-hum overnight session
• ADP data was slightly weaker, but markets didn't do much with it
• As stocks held their ground, bond markets began weakening
• More than half the losses were intact before ISM data, which was stronger than expected
• That made for more volatility than anything, but once resolved, bonds continued into weaker territory.
• Notably, bonds did not follow a swoop to the lows of the day in stocks.  This could be a big clue as to the evolution of tradeflows in Treasuries
• MBS are just keeping pace as best they can and their struggles are a good thing on these down days because they're not moving into weaker territory as quickly as Treasuries.