MBS Day Ahead: Important Data vs Stock Lever

Today leads off with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15am.  While it is the stated goal of this data series to capture the BLS report's revised numbers (specifically, the "private payrolls" component of the Employment Situation Report), there have been major discrepancies between the initial headlines.  Here's a more detailed look at how that's played out over time.

ISM Non-Manufacturing is out at 10am, and can be a significant market mover in and of itself.  The risk would normally be that both the reports come in stronger-than-expected, making for unpleasant moves higher for interest rates.  While that could indeed happen, it wouldn't be a full-fledged sell-off unless equities markets continue higher as well. 

The reason for that is fairly simple in that bond yields and equities have been such close pals recently.  To reiterate the conclusion above, whereas we'd normally be preoccupied with one major piece of data, this time it will take some level of consensus between the data and the stock market if bond markets are to start moving outside the week's heretofore range before Friday's NFP data.