MBS RECAP: Recent Trends Pause Ahead of Important Data

By: Matthew Graham

As expected, today's market movements were mere shadows of their former selves, opting for narrow consolidation ahead of the push of important data through the end of the week.  MBS began the day moderately weaker, but not quite halfway back through yesterday's gains. 

There was very little excitement from there on out as MBS held inside a 5 tick range for all but a few minutes.  They generally traded sideways while Treasuries were just slightly worse off.  Yields followed the move higher in equities markets but similar to MBS, found support above halfway into yesterday's range.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
97-19 : -0-12
FNMA 3.5
101-22 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
104-29 : -0-07
Treasuries
2 YR
0.3118 : +0.0078
10 YR
2.6258 : +0.0438
30 YR
3.5960 : +0.0560
Pricing as of 2/4/14 4:28PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:51PM  :  Bouncing Back as Stocks Level Off; MBS Outperform
11:39AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: At Weakest Levels; Right on the Edge of Reprice Risk
9:13AM  :  Bond Markets Slightly Weaker as Stocks Rally

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "MI question: Buyer purchases a house at $400K (below market). House appraises at $475K. Loan amount of $380K or 95%LTV. Buyer wants to get lender paid MI so that she can refinance at the lower rate that does not include the MI a couple months later. Is this feasible? Or is the borrower barred by her original purchase price value?"
Ryan Ford  :  "usually 6 to 12 months depending on the lender. Why wouldn't they just pay the MI for 12 months, pay $300 for an appraisal and then get rid of the pmi?"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "RF, I think she thinks that paying hte higher rate for 2 months is cheaper than waiting te time period (which I'm not sure what that is) to remove the MI"
Michael Ullmann  :  "DP: Wells for example will allow you to pay for an appraisal and get a value that supports 78% ltv based on imporvments and you will have to show receipts dollar for dollar for the imporvements. You can have mi removed the next month if you fit what I just explained"
Scott Valins  :  "Ira were you going to mention that NY purchase deals they'll use appraised value for LTV purposes?"
Ira Selwin  :  "Yes"
Michael Ullmann  :  "TR: yes one of the only good things to come out of NY with respect to mortgages"
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "Greentree announced today that they are exiting wholesale...for those interested"
Matt Hodges  :  "methinks ADP is confused about what to do tomorrow... do we revise lower based on BLS, only to get burned by BLS revising higher..."
Victor Burek  :  "they will definitely revise after getting nfp numbers"
Matt Hodges  :  "with so many months aligned until last month..."
Sung Kim  :  "but adp hasnt been tracking NFP well have they?"
Matthew Graham  :  "BLS revises more than ADP"
Matthew Graham  :  "http://mndne.ws/1am5qM1 there's a table in that lower chart"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "is it me or does it seem like there locking before NFP is a given."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Feb 05
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 403.4
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Jan 180 238
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jan 53.7 53.0